Corn Market Update: Stable European, Rising US Futures Amidst Mixed Fundamentals

The global corn market continues its dynamic balancing act as traders weigh steady European prices against a mild upward momentum on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The past week provided little drama on the Euronext, with contracts for both the August and November 2025 terms unchanged, closing at EUR 205.75/t and EUR 199.75/t respectively. Meanwhile, US futures saw a modest uptick: the CBOT December 2025 contract climbed 0.83% to close at 423.25 USc/bu. Physical markets in Europe, Ukraine, and South America also show minimal price volatility, with feed-grade corn maintaining stable values and popcorn markets seeing marginal advances.

Market participants are closely monitoring weather developments across the US Midwest, the Black Sea region, and Western Europe as pollination advances—a critical window for yield determination. Recent USDA reports have re-emphasised comfortable global stock levels, but the ongoing risk of heat and uneven rainfall adds underlying support. Export competition between Ukraine, the US, and Brazil persists, while new-crop demand from major Asian buyers remains robust. Longer-term, traders are trying to decipher mixed signals from speculative positioning, early acreage revelations, and a less bearish macro backdrop. In this environment of subdued volatility but clear sensitivity to any surprise, strategies must be nimble, with fundamentals, weather, and global trade flows as the key signposts for coming weeks.

📈 Prices: Key Futures & Spot Markets

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Euronext (Paris)	Aug 25	205.75	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
Euronext (Paris)	Nov 25	199.75	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
CBOT (Chicago)	Sep 25	404.25	+0.75%	USC/bu	Slightly Bullish
CBOT (Chicago)	Dec 25	423.25	+0.83%	USC/bu	Positive
Physical (Dordrecht, NL)	Popcorn, BR FCA	0.75	+1.3%	EUR/kg	Firm
Physical (Odesa, UA)	Feed Corn, FCA	0.25	0.00%	EUR/kg	Steady
Physical (Paris, FR)	Yellow Corn, FOB	0.25	-3.8%	EUR/kg	Slight Weakness

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Supply Reports: World corn supplies remain ample, but the US carryout was trimmed slightly, lending support to futures prices.
• Crop Acreage Forecasts: Recent US acreage numbers are holding steady, but analysts are watching for any last-minute adjustments tied to unplanted or drowned-out fields.
• Global Inventories: Stocks remain above recent averages in the US and Brazil, while Ukraine and the EU are expected to see moderate carryout amid steady exports.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains net short but has recently started covering, contributing to moderately bullish price action in Chicago.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

Major Exporters	2024/25 Output* (Mt)	Stocks* (Mt)
USA	389	56
Brazil	118	9
Ukraine	28	2
EU	63	4

*Estimates, updated July 2025

Top Importers	2024/25 Import Forecast (Mt)
China	22
EU	17
Mexico	18
Japan	15

☁️ Weather Outlook & Impact on Yields

• US Midwest: Variable moisture; southern and western belt faces pockets of heat/dryness. Rainfall in the coming days will be critical during pollination, with localized stress possible.
• Ukraine: Adequate soil moisture but forecast hints of above-average temperatures. Early stress risk if heat persists; currently favorable for crop development.
• Western EU (France/Germany): Continued moderate rainfall and warm temperatures—supportive for yield but dryness in southern France is being watched.
• South America (Brazil/Argentina): Off-season; fieldwork progressing, mostly neutral influence for now.

📌 Market Drivers

• Near-perfect weather can limit additional price strength, while any severe US/Black Sea stress could spark further gains.
• Export pace from Ukraine and Brazil competes with US; watch Black Sea geopolitics and EU demand trends.
• Acreage switches and late planting conditions under scrutiny for final US S&D (supply & demand) balance sheet.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Expect range-bound trade on Euronext and incremental bullishness on CBOT if US weather turns adverse.
• End-users: Consider locking in a portion of Q3-Q4 needs before US pollination is complete.
• Producers: Monitor forward sales on rallies, particularly if weather remains benign through late July.
• Speculators: Watch for volatility spikes around upcoming USDA reports and weather model shifts. Maintain nimble positioning.
• Monitor physical corn differentials in the Black Sea, as any export hiccup could support Western European and CBOT prices.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current	3-Day Outlook	Direction
Euronext (Nov 25)	199.75 EUR/t	199.5 – 201.0 EUR/t	Neutral/Bullish on weather
CBOT (Dec 25)	423.25 USc/bu	420 – 428 USc/bu	Mildly Bullish
Physical UA FCA	0.25 EUR/kg	0.24 – 0.26 EUR/kg	Steady