Corn Market Update: Weather Stress, Robust Exports, and Global Supply Recovery Shape Outlook

The global corn market is currently at a crossroads, balancing robust U.S. export demand, a partial rebound in Ukrainian output, and ongoing weather-driven yield risks in key growing regions. Technical buying recently supported prices at the CBOT, while weaker wheat pressured sentiment. Market participants remain focused on the U.S. harvest — expected to be large but potentially below optimistic USDA projections, as crop stress from diseases and dry conditions weigh on yield potential.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian corn harvest prospects have improved compared to last year, but remain below the historic five-year average, underpinning a gradual global supply recovery. Strong export inspection data from the U.S. and a surge in Brazilian exports add momentum on the demand side, with trade flows increasingly responsive to shifting weather and logistical uncertainties. As the USDA prepares its next crop update, and with mixed signals from ethanol and export sales, traders must remain vigilant to both geopolitical risks and fundamental shifts in market direction.

📈 Corn Prices at Major Exchanges

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
CBOT	Dec 25	418.75	-1.00 (–0.24%)	US-Cent/bu	Neutral/Bearish
Euronext	Nov 25	186.25	0.00 (0.00%)	EUR/t	Neutral
DCE	Sep 25	2,315.00	+58.00 (+2.51%)	CNY/t	Bullish

🛒 Spot & Export Prices (selected)

Origin	Type	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous	Delivery
Ukraine (Odesa)	Yellow feed grade	0.27	0.27	FCA
France (Paris)	Yellow	0.22	0.24	FOB
Ukraine (Odesa)	Yellow	0.20	0.20	FOB

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US Crop Prospects: StoneX now pegs U.S. corn yield at 186.9 bu/acre (down 1.2 bpa from Aug), with total production at 16.577 billion bushels. USDA remains higher at 188.8 bpa and 16.742 billion bu, next update 12 Sept. Yield stress from plant disease and drought remains a key risk.
• Ukraine Recovery: 2025/26 corn output projected at 31.3 Mt (up from 26.9 Mt, but 9% below 5-yr average), with exports likely at 26 Mt. Some local estimates lower at 28–29 Mt.
• Global Exports: US corn export inspections in July at 6.224 Mt (+17% y/y; 2nd highest on record for July). Cumulative 11-month exports: 66.1 Mt. Brazilian August exports a strong 6.85 Mt, nearly triple July’s volume.
• Feed & Industrial Demand: US DDGS July exports: 1.06 Mt (+15% m/m, -3% y/y). Ethanol production robust at 1.075 M bpd; ethanol exports a record 164.38 M gal in July.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds show mixed sentiment — technical buying at CBOT matched by underlying demand uncertainties and weaker parallel grain (wheat) markets.

📊 Corn Market Fundamentals: Global Comparison

Country	2025/26 Production (Mt)	Export Estimate (Mt)	Notes
USA	16,577–16,742	~54*	Yield risk, excellent exports
Ukraine	28–31.3	26	Recovery, below avg.
Brazil	>130**	>55**	Export surge
EU	60–63***	5–7***	Mild recovery
China	280–285**	negl.	Largest importer

*USDA July; **Conab/USDA; ***EU Commission (2024 est.)

🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• US Midwest: Current conditions mixed; recent dryness and ongoing warm temperatures in the western Corn Belt increasing crop stress (Iowa, Nebraska, parts of Illinois and Kansas). Crop maturity is ahead of normal, but kernel fill may be inadequate.
• Ukraine: Sufficient soil moisture after recent rains, but risk from localized drought in southern and eastern regions.
• Brazil: Strong export pace reflects a successful second (safrinha) crop; no immediate weather threats.
• China: Recent typhoons brought excess moisture in the northeast, but crop outlook largely stable.

📆 Trading Outlook & Key Takeaways

• Short-term: Monitor the upcoming USDA report (12 Sept) — likely a trigger for price volatility; markets are finely balanced between bullish export data and yield downside risks.
• Bullish Risks: Further yield loss in the US/Ukraine, delayed harvests, sustained export demand, escalation in Black Sea tensions.
• Bearish Scenarios: Upward yield revisions, export slowdown (esp. as Brazilian supplies peak), weak wheat pulling all grains lower.
• Price recommendation: End-users may consider layering in coverage for Q4–Q1 now; producers should be alert for short covering rallies to make sales.
• Speculators: High volatility expected after USDA update; consider spreads with wheat/soy, and be aware of changing weather models.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Spot Price	Forecast Range (3d)	Sentiment
CBOT Dec 25	418.75 USc/bu	415–423	Sideways/Bearish
Euronext Nov 25	186.25 EUR/t	185–189	Neutral
DCE Sep 25	2315 CNY/t	2280–2350	Bullish/Volatile

[p]Please note: Price ranges are indicative and subject to adjustment following official USDA and regional weather releases.[/p]