Corn Markets Show Mixed Trends Amid Profit-Taking and South American Weather Concerns
Corn futures displayed mixed trends on Friday as profit-taking and weather updates from South America influenced prices. The March contract at CBOT closed lower by 3.00 ct to 486.75 ct/bu, while the March contract at Euronext declined slightly by 0.25 EUR to 215.75 EUR/t.
CBOT: Profit-Taking Pressures Prices
Corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ended the week under slight pressure due to profit-taking after recent gains. The March 2025 contract dropped by 3.00 ct/bu (-0.61%) to settle at 486.75 ct/bu (approximately 184 EUR/t). Other contracts also posted modest declines:
| Contract | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Change | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 25 | 486.75 | -3.00 | -0.61 % |
| May 25 | 496.50 | -2.75 | -0.55 % |
| July 25 | 498.50 | -2.25 | -0.45 % |
| September 25 | 465.25 | -1.75 | -0.37 % |
| December 25 | 462.50 | -1.75 | -0.38 % |
Euronext: Corn Futures Slightly Lower
Corn futures at Euronext were relatively stable, with only slight declines in the March 2025 contract, which closed at 215.75 EUR/t, down 0.25 EUR (-0.12%). Other contracts remained unchanged:
| Contract | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 25 | 215.75 | -0.25 | -0.12 % |
| June 25 | 220.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 % |
| August 25 | 225.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 % |
| November 25 | 217.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 % |
Key Market Drivers:
- Profit-Taking Following Recent Highs:
After reaching the highest levels in over a year, both CBOT and Euronext markets saw some consolidation as traders booked profits. - Argentina’s Weather Challenges Persist:
- Argentina continues to suffer from heat and drought, prompting the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to cut its corn production forecast by 1 million tons to 49 million tons, compared to the USDA’s projection of 51 million tons.
- Although some rain is expected in the coming week, high temperatures may limit its impact on crop conditions.
- Delays in Brazil’s Corn Planting:
- Heavy rains in key soybean-growing regions are delaying the harvest, which is crucial for the timely planting of Safrinha corn.
- The delayed planting increases the risk of reduced yields, as late-planted corn may miss the optimal window for rain during Brazil’s dry season.
- US Ethanol and Export Data:
- Ethanol production in the U.S. dropped slightly to 1.099 million barrels/day, while ethanol inventories rose to 25.874 million barrels, an increase of 866,000 barrels.
- Traders are awaiting weekly export sales data, with expectations ranging from 700,000 to 1.7 million tons for 2024/25.
Outlook:
Corn markets are expected to remain volatile as traders weigh global supply uncertainties and demand signals. South American weather will continue to be a significant factor, especially as Brazil faces planting delays and Argentina struggles with drought conditions. Profit-taking may limit further price gains in the short term, but strong export demand could provide support.