📉 Corn Markets Under Pressure – Profit-Taking and Argentina’s Export Tax Cut Weigh on Prices 📉
After recent gains, CBOT and Euronext corn futures declined on Monday. Profit-taking and Argentina’s decision to cut its export tax on corn contributed to the price drop. Meanwhile, weather conditions in South America remain critical, particularly in Argentina and Brazil.
📊 Market Developments at the Exchanges
📍 CBOT: Corn Prices Decline on Profit-Taking
Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower on Monday. Profit-taking and Argentina’s decision to reduce its export tax on corn put pressure on prices.
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (ct/bu) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 482.25 | -4.25 | -0.87 % |
| May 2025 | 492.25 | -4.25 | -0.86 % |
| July 2025 | 493.75 | -3.75 | -0.75 % |
| Sep 2025 | 461.50 | -2.75 | -0.59 % |
| Dec 2025 | 458.25 | -2.75 | -0.60 % |
📍 Euronext: Losses Due to a Stronger Euro
Corn futures on Euronext also declined. A stronger euro and a weak wheat market exerted downward pressure on prices.
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 213.75 | -2.25 | -1.0 % |
| June 2025 | 220.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 % |
| Aug 2025 | 225.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 % |
| Nov 2025 | 217.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 % |
🌍 Market Drivers & Key Influences
📌 1. Argentina Cuts Export Tax on Corn
The Argentine government reduced the export tax on corn from 12% to 9.5%, aiming to boost global sales. This increased supply expectations and weighed on international corn prices.
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📌 2. Weather Conditions in South America
- 🇦🇷 Argentina:
- Extreme heat & dryness continue to stress corn crops.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange now rates 37% of corn fields as “poor to very poor” – a 4 percentage point increase from the previous week.
- Localized rain showers are expected next week, but intense sunlight could limit their benefit.
- 🇧🇷 Brazil:
- Delays in soybean harvesting are slowing the second-crop (Safrinha) corn planting.
- According to CONAB, only 35.7% of the fields have been sown – compared to 45.3% last year.
- The next two weeks are critical for crop development.
📌 3. U.S. Exports Remain Strong
- According to the USDA, corn exports for the week ending February 16 totalled 1.66 million tons, hitting the upper end of expectations.
- This marks a 62% increase from the previous week, with South Korea being the largest buyer at 462,100 tons.
📌 4. Speculators Reduce Corn Positions
- According to the CFTC, managed money traders reduced their net long positions in corn futures by 19,450 contracts to 311,678 contracts, the lowest level in four weeks.
🔮 Market Outlook & Forecasts
📆 Short-Term Price Forecast (3 Days)
Corn markets are expected to remain volatile in the coming days, influenced by the following factors:
✔️ U.S. exports could provide some price support.
✔️ South American weather will be closely monitored – potential rains in Argentina may pressure prices.
✔️ Delayed Brazilian corn planting remains a risk for the upcoming harvest.
📉 Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days:
- CBOT March 2025: 479 – 485 ct/bu
- Euronext March 2025: 211 – 216 EUR/t
⛅ 14-Day Weather Trend for Key Growing Areas
🇦🇷 Argentina (Central Regions – Buenos Aires, Cordoba, Santa Fe)
📍 Current Situation: Persistent drought with scattered rainfall.
📆 Forecast (14 Days):
- 🌡️ Temperatures rising to 32–36°C (above average).
- 🌧️ Possible rain showers between February 26–28, but unevenly distributed.
🇧🇷 Brazil (Mato Grosso, Goiás, Paraná)
📍 Current Situation: Good moisture reserves, but planting delays.
📆 Forecast (14 Days):
- ⛈️ Rainy conditions until February 24, which may further slow planting.
- 🌤️ Drier period starting in early March, potentially beneficial for germination.
📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks
📦 Stock Changes Since the Start of Reporting
| 📅 Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (Mio. t) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 Mio. t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 Mio. t |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 Mio. t |
🛑 Since the start of our reporting, global corn stocks have declined by a total of 25.5 million tons!
🌾 Production in Recent Years & Current Forecasts
| 🌍 Country | 📅 2022/23 (Mio. t) | 📅 2023/24 (Mio. t) | 📅 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t) | 📉 Change 24/25 vs. 23/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 382 | 385 | 384 | -0.3 % |
| 🇨🇳 China | 283 | 290 | 292 | +0.7 % |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 125 | 135 | 137 | +1.5 % |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 51 | 49 | 46 | -6.1 % |
📊 Summary: While production in Brazil continues to grow, Argentina could suffer significant losses due to drought. Global stocks remain at a 4-year low.
🔍 Key Takeaways:
📉 Corn prices pressured by Argentina’s export tax cut.
🌎 South American weather remains a concern – Brazil is delayed, and Argentina suffers from heat.
📈 U.S. exports remain strong but offer limited market support.
🔮 Markets to stay volatile – weather and export demand will drive prices in the coming weeks.
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