Corn Mixed as Old Crop Rallies on Exports – USDA Reports Offer No Surprises
While the USDA’s planting and stock reports met expectations, strong export inspections supported old-crop futures. New crop contracts remained slightly weaker.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Corn
yellow feed grade, moisture: 14.5% max
98%
FCA 0.26 €/kg
(from UA)
CBOT corn ended Monday with old crop prices firming, while new crops remained under pressure. The USDA’s long-awaited reports confirmed a large jump in acreage, but no major surprises. Euronext corn followed CBOT higher, though gains were modest.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 446.25 | +4.00 |
| Jul 25 | 463.25 | ±0.00 |
| Dec 25 | 442.00 | ±0.00 |
➡ Export optimism helped support front-month contracts, but the market remains cautious post-USDA data.
🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 211.75 | +0.50 |
| Aug 25 | 217.25 | 0.00 |
| Nov 25 | 214.00 | 0.00 |
➡ Prices in Paris saw mild strength but remain under harvest pressure and competition from Black Sea origins.
🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 📦 USDA Export Inspections (week ending March 27):
- Corn shipments: 1.644 million tons
- Exceeded expectations of 1.0–1.5 million tons
- Strong demand supported old crop futures
- 📊 USDA Prospective Plantings Report:
- Corn acreage estimate: 95.33 million acres
- ↑ +5% vs. 2024 (90.6 million acres)
- In line with the analyst average (95.36 million acres)
- 📉 USDA Grain Stocks Report (as of March 1):
- Corn stocks: 8.151 billion bushels
- 201 mbu lower YoY
- Stock draw Dec-Mar: 3.92 billion bu (vs. 3.82 last year)
- In line with trade estimates
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
| Region | Trend | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. Corn Belt | Cooler, slight moisture | Minor delays in field prep |
| 🇪🇺 Europe | Dry & stable | Favours early corn sowing |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | Scattered rainfall | Patchy conditions for Safrinha |
🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks
| Region | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | YoY Change | Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 389.7 | +6.2 Mt | 55.2 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 288.8 | ±0.0 | 204.2 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 121.8 | +0.6 Mt | 11.4 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 65.0 (est.) | +6.0 Mt | 16.1 |
| 🌍 Global Total | 1,222.4 | +5.8 Mt | 314.6 |
📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)
| Country | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 354.2 | 383.5 | 389.7 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 277.0 | 288.8 | 288.8 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | 125.5 | 121.8 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 52.3 | 61.2 | 65.0 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 52.0 | 56.0 | 49.0 |
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- 🔄 USDA reports = neutral impact due to expectations already priced in
- 🔼 Export demand remains a bright spot for old-crop
- 🔽 New crop still faces pressure from large acreage and technical resistance
🧭 Strategy: Maintain a neutral-to-cautious stance. Front-month contracts may find support from demand, while new crop is capped by large acreage.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 2–4)
| Market | Outlook | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT | 🔁 Sideways | Range-bound after USDA; follow exports |
| Euronext | 🔽 Slightly weaker | Still soft on EU supply expectations |
| Dalian | 🔁 Stable | No new domestic impulse in China |