Some European analysts believe that EU farmers started planting corn too late in 2023, so the planting areas will be reduced. The European Commission predicts that corn will be planted on 8.52 mln ha, which is 330 thsd tonnes less than in 2022 and 725 thsd ha less than in 2021.
However, in case of favorable weather, the corn harvest could be higher than in the dry year of 2022. Last year, corn crops in the EU almost dried up in the fields, making the harvest the smallest since 2007.
Another reason for the decline in corn acreage is the expansion of rapeseed and winter grains. In addition, European farmers are relying on drought-resistant crops such as sunflower or very profitable crops such as soybeans. In the countries bordering Ukraine, farmers also take into account the factor of significant competition with cheap Ukrainian grain.
Weather remains the determining factor
However, the weather remains the determining factor. Most EU countries are suffering from moisture deficit, especially Spain, Italy, France, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, with only Germany experiencing excessive rainfall. In Portugal and Spain, corn is mainly grown under irrigation, so the distribution of water will determine the final planted areas.
In case of sufficient moisture, analysts expect the corn production to recover to 65.3 mln tonnes, which is 25% or 13 mln tonnes higher than last year’s harvest, but 8.2 mln tonnes lower than in 2021. According to the forecast of the European Commission, the largest increase in corn production in Slovakia, Romania and Hungary will be compared to the lean 2022.
At the same time, a significant reduction in the number of livestock in the EU, outbreaks of bird flu, and high inflation are reducing the consumption of meat and dairy products, and thus the need for animal feed, including corn.
Due to high corn prices in the EU, it has recently been increasingly replaced by wheat and barley in feed formulations, especially in countries that had a poor harvest last year. Therefore, France, Italy, Romania, Hungary and Germany will significantly reduce the use of corn in feed.
According to FranceAgriMe monitoring, as of April 17, 20% of the planned areas were planted with corn in France (+8% per week), compared to 29% last year.
Source: Graintrade