📌 Corn Prices Fall Again – Traders Nervous Ahead of USDA Planting & Stocks Reports
U.S. corn futures dropped for the third consecutive session on Wednesday, while European prices firmed slightly. The market is holding its breath ahead of Monday’s crucial USDA reports.
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Prices weakened further in Chicago as traders trimmed positions ahead of the upcoming USDA grain stocks and acreage data. Euronext corn, however, found mild support from stronger wheat futures.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 451.25 | −6.50 |
| Jul 25 | 459.00 | −3.50 |
| Dec 25 | 444.50 | −3.25 |
➡ Three days of losses reflect rising caution and pre-report uncertainty.
🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 213.75 | +0.75 |
| Aug 25 | 219.25 | 0.00 |
| Nov 25 | 215.00 | 0.00 |
➡ Euronext corn is slightly up, tracking firm wheat markets.
🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 📊 USDA Reports (due March 31):
- Grain Stocks (March 1): Analyst average: 8.153 billion bu
- Range: 8.06 – 8.311 billion bu
- Last year: 8.352 billion bu
- Acreage Intentions: Reuters poll average: 94.361 million acres of corn
- Up from 90.594 million in 2024
- Grain Stocks (March 1): Analyst average: 8.153 billion bu
- 🛢 EIA Ethanol Data (last week):
- Production: ↓ 52,000 bpd → 1.053 million bpd
- Stocks: ↑ 775,000 barrels → 27.35 million barrels
(Mainly in the Midwest) - Exports: ↑ 53,000 bpd → 164,000 bpd
- Refinery inputs: ↓ 18,000 bpd → 878,000 bpd
- 📦 USDA Export Sales (due today):
- Expected: 0.6–1.6 million tons for 2024/25
- New crop: up to 100,000 tons
- 🇧🇷 Brazil Exports (ANEC):
- March forecast: 338,000 tons
- February: 1.3 million tons
- March 2024: only 141,000 tons
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
| Region | Trend | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. Corn Belt | Cool, damp | Minor delays possible |
| 🇪🇺 EU | Mild & dry | Favourable for sowing |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | Mixed, scattered rain | May affect late Safrinha |
🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks
| Region | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | YoY Change | Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 389.7 | +6.2 Mt | 55.2 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 288.8 | ±0.0 | 204.2 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 121.8 | +0.6 Mt | 11.4 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 63.0 | +1.8 Mt | 16.1 |
| 🌍 Global Total | 1,222.4 | +5.8 Mt | 314.6 |
➡ Supply remains adequate globally, but planting decisions could shift expectations sharply.
📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)
| Country | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 354.2 | 383.5 | 389.7 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 277.0 | 288.8 | 288.8 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | 125.5 | 121.8 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 52.3 | 61.2 | 63.0 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 52.0 | 56.0 | 49.0 |
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- 🟠 Short-term outlook remains defensive ahead of the USDA reports.
- 📉 Weak ethanol output and technical pressure weigh on prices.
- ⚠️ Watch for volatility spikes post-Monday’s data.
🧭 Strategy: Avoid aggressive long positions until acreage and stock numbers are released. Potential opportunity for positioning on post-report reaction.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Mar 28–30)
| Market | Outlook | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT | 🔽 Bearish bias | Traders hedging risk before USDA release |
| Euronext | 🔁 Sideways | Wheat strength limits the downside |
| Dalian (China) | 🔼 Slightly firmer | Steady domestic demand |