📌 Corn Prices Pause – Market Waits for USDA Planting Report Amid Low Volatility
With no fresh impulses and traders awaiting critical USDA data, the corn market moved sideways. Light losses in Europe and minimal gains in the U.S. reflect cautious sentiment.
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The corn market remains directionless as traders brace for acreage data and monitor global planting conditions. Export activity remains strong, but macro uncertainties persist.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 452.00 | +0.25 |
➡ A minimal gain signals indecisiveness in the market.
🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 214.25 | −1.50 |
| Aug 25 | 218.75 | 0.00 |
| Nov 25 | 214.25 | 0.00 |
➡ European prices slipped slightly on profit-taking and technical correction.
🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 📊 USDA Prospective Plantings Report (due March 31):
Traders expect expanded corn acreage for 2025. Current new crop prices are more attractive than soybeans, driving planting intentions. - 🌱 EU Planting Outlook (MARS Report):
Conditions for corn sowing are generally favourable across the EU. No specific yield forecast yet.
For winter barley, the EU yield is projected to rise by 6% to 5.15 t/ha. - 🚢 USDA Weekly Export Inspections (as of Mar 20):
- Total exports: 1.463 million tons
- +16.6% YoY, −13.5% WoW
- Top destinations: 🇲🇽 Mexico (474,491t), 🇯🇵 Japan (412,434t), 🇰🇷 South Korea (136,336t)
- Cumulative exports: 32.268 million tons (+32% YoY)
- 🇧🇷 Brazil Safrinha Update (AgRural):
- Safrinha’s forecast unchanged at 87.9 million tons
- Total crop raised to 121.8 million tons (+0.6 Mt)
- Concerns remain over irregular rainfall patterns
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
| Region | Trend | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 Corn Belt | Mild with scattered rain | Neutral for planting prep |
| 🇪🇺 Europe | Mostly dry, favourable | Sowing conditions stable |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | Irregular rain in centre-west | Potential stress on Safrinha |
🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks (Latest Update)
| Region | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | YoY Change | Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 389.7 | +6.2 Mt | 55.2 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 288.8 | ±0.0 | 204.2 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 121.8 | +0.6 Mt | 11.4 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 63.0 | +1.8 Mt | 16.1 |
| 🌍 Global Total | 1,222.4 | +5.8 Mt | 314.6 |
➡ Brazil’s upward revision boosts global numbers slightly, though local weather remains a concern.
📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)
| Country | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 354.2 | 383.5 | 389.7 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 277.0 | 288.8 | 288.8 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | 125.5 | 121.8 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 52.3 | 61.2 | 63.0 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 52.0 | 56.0 | 49.0 |
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- ⚠️ Low volatility expected ahead of the USDA report
- 📊 Export momentum continues but may soften if USD strengthens
- 🧭 Focus: Acreage intentions, South American weather, and technical chart signals
Strategy Tip: Stay on the sidelines or manage positions with tight stops until clearer direction emerges from the March 31 data.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (March 26–28)
| Market | Outlook | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT | 🔁 Sideways | Traders in wait-and-see mode before USDA data |
| Euronext | 🔽 Slightly weaker | Mild correction, little fresh support |
| Dalian (China) | 🔼 Slightly firmer | Domestic demand remains stable |