Corn Prices Rebound – Trade Optimism and EU Tensions Support Market

➡ Corn Prices Rebound – Trade Optimism and EU Tensions Support Market

Corn prices strengthened on Monday as the market welcomed improving U.S.-Japan trade signals and higher EU prices. Planting progress and export inspections added momentum.

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U.S. corn markets started the week mixed but moved higher as the day progressed. Nearby futures contracts gained while deferred positions remained stable. Euronext contracts saw widespread increases, supported by firmer wheat prices and rising import concerns due to the evolving EU-U.S. trade conflict.

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📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Daily Change
May 2025	464.50	+4.25
Jul 2025	470.75	+3.00
Dec 2025	446.00	±0.00

➡ Short-term contracts moved higher on trade and export optimism.

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Daily Change
Jun 2025	212.75	+2.50
Aug 2025	217.50	+2.25
Nov 2025	212.75	+2.25

➡ All listed maturities in Paris posted solid gains, driven by tight import supply and wheat strength.

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🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 🛃 U.S.–Japan Trade Outlook:
  The announcement of renewed trade talks between the U.S. and Japan eased concerns about Japanese retaliation.
  • Japan was the #2 buyer of U.S. corn in 2024, behind Mexico
  • Positive news supported U.S. corn sentiment at the start of the week
• 🇪🇺 EU Considering Retaliatory Tariffs:
  On Wednesday, the EU will vote on potential counter-tariffs in response to U.S. steel and aluminium duties.
  • U.S. corn could be affected
  • The EU currently sources 21% of corn imports from the U.S., second only to Ukraine
  • Brazilian corn prices are already at a 3-year high
• 📈 USDA Crop Progress (Apr 8):
  • 2% of U.S. corn area planted – on par with the 5-year average, but slightly behind 2024
  • Severe rainfall in Ohio Valley and Mississippi Delta is delaying fieldwork
• 📦 USDA Export Inspections (week ending Apr 3):
  • 1.583 million tons shipped
  • −4% WoW, +8% YoY
  • Top buyers: 🇲🇽 Mexico (480,801t), 🇯🇵 Japan (383,994t), 🇰🇷 South Korea (194,246t), 🇨🇴 Colombia (162,845t)
  • Cumulative exports: 35.582 million tons, +30% YoY

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☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

Region	Trend	Impact
🇺🇸 U.S. Corn Belt	Wet, storms ongoing	Fieldwork delays, planting lag
🇧🇷 Brazil	Drier, mixed in south	Risk remains for the first crop
🇪🇺 EU	Neutral to mild	Good sowing conditions

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🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks

Region	2024/25 Output (Mt)	YoY Change	Ending Stocks (Mt)
🇺🇸 USA	389.7	+6.2 Mt	55.2
🇨🇳 China	288.8	±0.0	204.2
🇧🇷 Brazil	127.5	−0.6 Mt	11.4
🇪🇺 EU-27	65.0 (est.)	+6.0 Mt	16.1
🌍 Global	~1,222.4	+5.8 Mt	314.6

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📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)

Country	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25 (Est.)
🇺🇸 USA	354.2	383.5	389.7
🇨🇳 China	277.0	288.8	288.8
🇧🇷 Brazil	127.5	125.5	127.5 (adj.)
🇪🇺 EU-27	52.3	61.2	65.0
🇦🇷 Argentina	52.0	56.0	49.0

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💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• 🔼 Short-term support from trade diplomacy and tighter EU import outlook
• ⚠️ Weather risk growing as key regions remain soaked
• 📉 Exports steady, but watch for tariff fallout this week

🧭 Strategy:
Maintain long exposure in near-term futures. Monitor EU tariff vote and planting progress closely. Consider hedging if U.S. planting accelerates later in April.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 9–11)

Market	Outlook	Comment
CBOT	🔼 Slightly firmer	Buoyed by demand and weather
Euronext	🔼 Bullish bias	Policy fears and wheat strength support the upside
Dalian	🔁 Stable	No significant shifts in domestic demand

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