📌 Corn Prices Retreat on Friday – Traders Await USDA Reports Amid Dollar Strength
After a solid mid-week rally, corn prices closed lower on Friday in Chicago and Paris. The market is repositioning ahead of key USDA data and reacting to macroeconomic uncertainty.
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Markets shifted lower ahead of the March 31 USDA reports. Investors are stepping back, adjusting positions amid rising dollar strength and falling speculative sentiment.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Change | Weekly Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 464.25 | −4.75 | +5.75 ct (+1.25%) |
🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change | Weekly Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 215.75 | −1.00 | +1.75 EUR (+0.8%) |
🇨🇳 Dalian (China, CNY/t)
| Contract | Closing Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 2,284.00 | +8.00 |
| Sep 25 | 2,336.00 | +9.00 |
➡ While Dalian gained moderately, CBOT and Euronext saw Friday pullbacks after strong export-driven rallies earlier in the week.
🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 💱 U.S. Dollar Strength: A stronger dollar reduced export competitiveness and weighed on futures late in the week.
- 🧾 USDA Reports Pending (March 31):
- Upcoming Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports
- The market expects increased corn planting in 2025
- 📉 Speculative Sentiment Declines:
- CFTC report (Mar 18): Net long positions in corn fell by 39,271 contracts to 107,270
- Down sharply from early February highs of 364,217 – the sentiment is less bullish
- 📦 Export Progress (2024/25):
- Total commitments: 52.0 million tons
- 25% higher than last year
- 84% of USDA target already booked (1 pp above 5-year avg)
- 🇲🇽 Mexico Outlook (USDA Office):
- 2025/26 Corn production expected to rise
- Corn imports are likely to decline due to higher beginning stocks and domestic output
- Wheat output may fall due to reduced reservoir water – import needs for wheat and rice could rise
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
| Region | Trend | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 Corn Belt | Mild, variable rain | Fieldwork continues |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | Dry with sporadic relief | Moisture stress remains |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | Hot & dry in the northwest | Yields remain under threat |
🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks (Latest IGC & USDA)
| Region | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | YoY Change | Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 389.7 | +6.2 Mt | 55.2 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 288.8 | ±0.0 | 204.2 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 121.0 | −4.5 Mt | 11.4 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 63.0 | +1.8 Mt | 16.1 |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | 27.5 | −2.3 Mt | 3.5 |
| 🌍 Global Total | 1,222.4 | +5.8 Mt | 314.6 |
➡ The IGC has raised its 2025/26 production estimate to 1.269 billion tons and ending stocks to 280 Mt. Demand is also expected to rise.
📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)
| Country | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 354.2 | 383.5 | 389.7 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 277.0 | 288.8 | 288.8 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | 125.5 | 121.0 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 52.3 | 61.2 | 63.0 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 52.0 | 56.0 | 49.0 |
➡ While the U.S. continues to expand output, Brazil and Argentina are likely to scale back due to weather and acreage revisions.
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- 🟢 Short-term pressure is likely to continue until USDA data is released
- ⚖️ Speculative sentiment has shifted to neutral-bearish – trend-following buyers should be cautious
- 📊 Export pace remains strong – but may be challenged by rising USD
🧭 Strategy: Await March 31 reports before entering new long positions. Monitor positioning, weather, and macro signals.
🔮 Conclusion & Outlook
Corn prices ended the week softer but still up overall. The market is preparing for key USDA data and adjusting to macroeconomic concerns and shifting weather risk.
📆 3-Day Price Forecast
- CBOT: Sideways to lower
- Euronext: Slight downside bias
- Dalian: Mild upward trend