➡ Corn Rallies for Third Day – Weather Risks and Wheat Strength Support Gains
Corn futures closed higher for the third straight session, supported by strong gains in wheat and soybeans and forecasts for disruptive rainfall in key U.S. growing areas.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Corn
yellow feed grade, moisture: 14.5% max
98%
FCA 0.26 €/kg
(from UA)
Corn prices in Chicago extended their recovery on Tuesday, with the May contract reaching a 3-day high. The market found support from external grain markets and weather concerns. Euronext corn remained mostly flat with a slight uptick in the front month.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (ct/bu) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 461.75 | +4.50 |
| Jul 25 | 468.25 | +5.00 |
| Dec 25 | 449.50 | +7.50 |
➡ Strong momentum in the front months supported technical buying despite fundamental headwinds.
🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
| Contract | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 212.25 | +0.50 |
| Aug 25 | 217.00 | 0.00 |
| Nov 25 | 213.75 | −0.25 |
➡ European contracts remain rangebound with limited directional momentum.
🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 🌧 U.S. Weather Concerns:
Heavy rain is forecasted from the Mississippi Delta through the Ohio River Valley – expected to delay fieldwork and support prices short term. - 🌎 Brazil Crop Downgrade (StoneX):
- First corn crop: ↓ to 25.90 million tons (from 26.53 Mt)
- Safrinha crop: ↓ to 101.62 million tons (from 102.13 Mt)
- Reason: Adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul
- 🌾 Wheat & Soybean Rally:
Strength in other grain markets provided spillover support for corn.
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
| Region | Trend | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. Corn Belt | Stormy, wet outlook | Likely delays to early planting |
| 🇪🇺 Europe | Mild & stable | Good sowing conditions |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | Mixed, drier south | Yield concern in 1st crop area |
🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks
| Region | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | Change | Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 389.7 | +6.2 Mt | 55.2 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 288.8 | ±0.0 | 204.2 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 → 127.5 | ▼ revised lower | 11.4 |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 65.0 (est.) | +6.0 Mt | 16.1 |
| 🌍 Global Total | 1,222.4 (approx.) | +5.8 Mt | 314.6 |
📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)
| Country | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 354.2 | 383.5 | 389.7 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 277.0 | 288.8 | 288.8 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 127.5 | 125.5 | 127.5 (adj.) |
| 🇪🇺 EU-27 | 52.3 | 61.2 | 65.0 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 52.0 | 56.0 | 49.0 |
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- ⚠️ Short-term risk on the weather – price support likely to continue
- 🔁 Watch external grains – wheat and soy still driving sentiment
- 🔻 New crop still capped by large U.S. acreage and strong USD
🧭 Strategy: Traders may consider short-term longs in front-month contracts, but beware of volatility linked to weather and fund flows.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 3–5)
| Market | Outlook | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT | 🔼 Slightly bullish | Weather support, but limited by chart levels |
| Euronext | 🔁 Stable | Flat trend amid lack of fresh fundamentals |
| Dalian | 🔁 Stable | Domestic demand unchanged |