Corn Rallies for Third Day – Weather Risks and Wheat Strength Support Gains

Corn Rallies for Third Day – Weather Risks and Wheat Strength Support Gains

Corn futures closed higher for the third straight session, supported by strong gains in wheat and soybeans and forecasts for disruptive rainfall in key U.S. growing areas.

---

Corn prices in Chicago extended their recovery on Tuesday, with the May contract reaching a 3-day high. The market found support from external grain markets and weather concerns. Euronext corn remained mostly flat with a slight uptick in the front month.

---

Market Situation & Price Development

CBOT (U.S. Market)

Contract	Closing Price (ct/bu)	Change
May 25	461.75	+4.50
Jul 25	468.25	+5.00
Dec 25	449.50	+7.50

Strong momentum in the front months supported technical buying despite fundamental headwinds.

Euronext (EU Market)

Contract	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Change
Jun 25	212.25	+0.50
Aug 25	217.00	0.00
Nov 25	213.75	−0.25

European contracts remain rangebound with limited directional momentum.

---

Key Market Drivers

• U.S. Weather Concerns:
  Heavy rain is forecasted from the Mississippi Delta through the Ohio River Valley – expected to delay fieldwork and support prices short term.
• Brazil Crop Downgrade (StoneX):
  • First corn crop: ↓ to 25.90 million tons (from 26.53 Mt)
  • Safrinha crop: ↓ to 101.62 million tons (from 102.13 Mt)
  • Reason: Adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul
• Wheat & Soybean Rally:
  Strength in other grain markets provided spillover support for corn.

---

14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

Region	Trend	Impact
U.S. Corn Belt	Stormy, wet outlook	Likely delays to early planting
Europe	Mild & stable	Good sowing conditions
Brazil	Mixed, drier south	Yield concern in 1st crop area

---

Global Corn Production & Stocks

Region	2024/25 Output (Mt)	Change	Ending Stocks (Mt)
USA	389.7	+6.2 Mt	55.2
China	288.8	±0.0	204.2
Brazil	127.5 → 127.5	▼ revised lower	11.4
EU-27	65.0 (est.)	+6.0 Mt	16.1
Global Total	1,222.4 (approx.)	+5.8 Mt	314.6

---

Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)

Country	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25 (Est.)
USA	354.2	383.5	389.7
China	277.0	288.8	288.8
Brazil	127.5	125.5	127.5 (adj.)
EU-27	52.3	61.2	65.0
Argentina	52.0	56.0	49.0

---

Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• Short-term risk on the weather – price support likely to continue
• Watch external grains – wheat and soy still driving sentiment
• New crop still capped by large U.S. acreage and strong USD

Strategy: Traders may consider short-term longs in front-month contracts, but beware of volatility linked to weather and fund flows.

---

3-Day Price Forecast (April 3–5)

Market	Outlook	Comment
CBOT	Slightly bullish	Weather support, but limited by chart levels
Euronext	Stable	Flat trend amid lack of fresh fundamentals
Dalian	Stable	Domestic demand unchanged

---