Crude Oil Retreats After Inventory Build – Demand Outlook Remains Fragile
Crude oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday after U.S. inventory data surprised to the upside. WTI contracts dropped more than 1 % as traders reassessed the global demand outlook and await OPEC+ direction.
📊 Market Overview – NYMEX WTI Futures
| Contract | Price (USD/bl) | Daily Change | % Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25 | 61.34 | –0.69 | –1.12% | ⬇️ |
| Aug 25 | 60.80 | –0.64 | –1.05% | ⬇️ |
| Sep 25 | 60.29 | –0.60 | –1.00% | ⬇️ |
| Dec 25 | 59.90 | –0.31 | –0.52% | ⬇️ |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- U.S. Crude Inventories Rise
According to the EIA, U.S. crude oil stocks increased by 5.2 million barrels last week, surprising traders who expected a draw. Gasoline and distillate stocks also rose. - Demand Outlook Uncertain
Despite the summer travel season, refined product demand indicators remain soft. Diesel consumption, in particular, has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels. - OPEC+ in Focus
Traders are watching for any official signals ahead of the June OPEC+ meeting. So far, no formal announcements have been made about extending voluntary cuts. - Macroeconomic Headwinds
Global growth concerns, sticky inflation in Europe, and sluggish industrial activity in China keep the demand narrative weak.
💼 Trading Strategy & Outlook
Crude is back under pressure and testing key support levels. Unless OPEC+ intervenes or inventory trends reverse, downside risk persists.
Recommendations:
– Sell rallies toward $62.50–63.00
– Buy only on confirmation of demand signals or OPEC+ action
– Use options to hedge summer price risks
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (WTI Jul 25)
| Date | Expected Range (USD/bl) | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| May 22 | 60.90–61.80 | ⬇️ Bearish bias |
| May 23 | 60.50–61.50 | ➡️ Consolidation |
| May 24 | 60.00–62.00 | ➡️ Volatility likely |
