The trajectory of cumin exports from India has experienced a noticeable deceleration since June. A trend is predicted to persist as the international market landscape shifts. The arrival of the new crop in exporting countries like Syria, Türkiye, and Iran is expected to dampen shipments from India further, as foreign importers are now presented with alternative options.
While India maintains its status as the largest cumin producer, consumer, and exporter, the current scenario suggests that the country may need to examine cumin imports to supplement domestic demand. The primary cause of the sluggish export performance lies in the steep price increase, which has curbed the pace of international shipments.
Before the initiation of harvesting in Syria, Türkiye, and Iran, India was the predominant cumin supplier, prompting foreign buyers to purchase despite the elevated price. However, the landscape has shifted with the new harvest, and India’s cumin attractiveness is dwindling. Cumin exports surged to 405 lakh kg in April-May 2023 from 230 lakh kg in the same period last year. However, this growth trajectory faltered in June, aligning with the commencement of cumin shipments from competing countries.
India has reportedly ordered the import of cumin in significant quantities, with 300-400 containers weighing 25 tonnes, placed with Syria, Türkiye, and Iran. Approximately 30-40 of these containers have already reached India. Nevertheless, the escalating price trend in these exporting nations could lead to order cancellations by some Indian buyers.
Despite the shifting dynamics of imports and exports, the price of cumin is anticipated to remain relatively high. The current stock of 2.5-3.0 million bags of cumin is primarily held by prominent producers and stockists who have capitalized on favourable market conditions. Their inclination to own stock in anticipation of further price hikes limits the probability of a significant price downturn.
As cumin’s export journey navigates complex global dynamics, the Indian market’s resilience and adaptability will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of this essential spice trade.
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