The global cumin (jeera) market continues to face persistent headwinds, with prices under pressure amid tepid demand from both stockists and exporters. Over the past week, prices fell by approximately $6/quintal, moving from $260.53 to $254.43 per quintal, reflecting caution in the market as buyers remain hesitant even at discounted levels. Spot market deals in Unjha mandi—a key benchmark—transacted between $224.71 and $226.92 per quintal, but weaker bulk demand and significant inventories have exerted further downward pressure. Daily arrivals at major mandis have lingered around 200 quintals, emphasizing muted trading volumes and limited buying interest at current price points.
Fundamentally, the situation is complicated by a notable 18% year-on-year decline in cumin sowing in Gujarat, India’s key production hub. This reduction, driven by delays in input supply and weak farmer interest, could provide medium-term support to prices if export demand revives. However, the immediate outlook is shaped by a pullback in global buying enthusiasm: earlier high prices have turned international buyers cautious, with many awaiting further softening to re-enter the market. Unless fresh export orders emerge or domestic consumption picks up—potentially during the upcoming festive season—jeera prices are expected to remain range-bound or see further downside. Looking forward, price recovery to the $270–$280 per quintal range depends on a sustained drop in acreage and a significant rebound in export activity. For now, the market tone remains wary, with traders advised to monitor inventories and global demand signals closely.
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📈 Prices: Latest Cumin Market Quotes
| Origin | Location | Product Type | Purity | Organic | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Change (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | New Delhi | Whole, grade – A | Yes | FOB | 5.28 | -0.02 | 2025-07-26 | Bearish | |
| IN | New Delhi | Grade – A | 99% | No | FOB | 2.43 | -0.02 | 2025-07-26 | Bearish |
| IN | New Delhi | Grade – A | 98% | No | FOB | 2.28 | -0.02 | 2025-07-26 | Bearish |
| IN | Gujarat – Unjha | 98% | No | FOB | 2.43 | -0.02 | 2025-07-26 | Bearish | |
| EG | Kairo | 99,9% | No | FOB | 4.88 | -0.02 | 2025-07-25 | Stable | |
| IR | Tehran | Green, premium | No | FOB | 5.73 | +0.06 | 2025-07-23 | Stronger |
🌍 Supply & Demand Situation
- Arrivals: Daily arrivals at major Indian mandis hover near 200 quintals, emphasizing a sluggish flow of goods.
- Bulk Buying: Average wholesale buying remains low, with exporters and stockists cautious due to high inventories.
- Export Market: Buyers are waiting for further price correction following record highs earlier this year; fresh export demand is still absent.
- Domestic Consumption: Expected to improve only with the onset of the festive season; until then, limited appetite remains.
- Inventory: High inventory levels continue to pressurize spot and forward prices.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Sowing & Acreage: Gujarat sowing down 18% YoY despite good monsoon. Delay in inputs and low price incentives have turned farmers away.
- Weather Outlook: Monsoon conditions are currently favorable for cumin crops in Gujarat and Rajasthan, supporting average yield expectations. No significant rainfall deficits or pest outbreaks reported. Short-term weather remains mild, but high temperatures in August can affect seed quality if the monsoon withdraws early.
- Exports & Global Demand: The high prices posted earlier in 2025 dampened international demand, motivating importers (notably in the Middle East and Europe) to delay purchases in anticipation of price drops.
- Speculative Positioning: No aggressive speculative positioning noted; sentiment is mostly cautious.
🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison
- India: Largest producer; acreage declined 18% YoY.
- Iran: Steady output, minor increase in premium grades (noted in moderate price appreciation).
- Egypt: Stable supply; pricing firm relative to India due to less domestic inventory pressure.
📆 Forecast & Trading Outlook
- Short-Term Price Range: $250–$260/quintal expected for the next week.
- Support Factors: New festive demand or surprise export orders could temporarily support prices; reduced acreage underpins medium-term optimism.
- Downside Risks: Persistent weak demand may push prices closer to $250/quintal or below if inventories persist at current levels.
- Upside Potential: Price recovery to $270–$280/quintal possible only with a rebound in export activity and further decline in acreage.
- Action Points:
- Buyers: Wait for further declines or signs of recovery in export/demand before fresh positioning.
- Sellers: Offload inventory at spot or near-term resistance levels; consider hedging if holding large stocks.
- Traders: Monitor weather in Gujarat/Rajasthan closely for late season risks, and track export pipeline/reports.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Mandis & FOB)
| Market/Region | Current Price (USD/quintal) | 3-Day Forecast (USD/quintal) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unjha (IN) | 225 | 223 – 226 | Weak |
| New Delhi FOB | 243 | 242 – 244 | Flat to Slightly Lower |
| Cairo FOB | 488 | 486 – 491 | Stable |
| Tehran FOB | 573 | 570 – 576 | Stable to Firm |
