The global cumin market remains caught in a downward cycle, as persistent lack of demand from China and expectations of new arrivals from Turkey, Syria, and China continue to pressure prices at Unjha, the primary trading hub in India. Despite sharply reduced arrivals—10,000 to 12,000 bags daily, well below typical volumes—there has been no sustained price recovery. Instead, local market prices slid another $6–7 per quintal this week, deepening trader worries and spotlighting the market’s uncertainty.
Even with this softness, India’s export performance offers a glimmer of resilience, with cumulative exports between April 2024 and February 2025 surging 60% by volume and 12% on value compared to last year. Nevertheless, with the Indian monsoon ushering in a typical export slowdown and fresh international supply looming on the horizon, most traders are cautious. Prices seem near a lower band, which could mean further declines are limited—yet, without a recovery in overseas demand (especially from China), the probability of a swift rebound remains slim. Those trading or sourcing cumin should remain watchful for new market signals, particularly around the incoming Turkish, Syrian, and Chinese crops, as well as developments in export flows out of India.
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Cumin powder
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FOB 4.57 €/kg
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FOB 5.30 €/kg
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Cumin seeds
grade - A
99%
FOB 2.59 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Latest Price Table: International Markets
| Product | Origin | Location | Grade / Purity | Organic | Closing Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumin powder | IN | New Delhi | Grade A | Yes | 4.57 | -0.65 | Weak |
| Cumin seeds (whole) | IN | New Delhi | Grade A | Yes | 5.30 | -0.75 | Soft |
| Cumin seeds | IN | New Delhi | Grade A 99% | No | 2.59 | -0.38 | Bearish |
| Cumin seeds | IN | Gujarat – Unjha | Grade A 98% | No | 2.52 | -0.79 | Bearish |
| Cumin seeds (premium green) | IR | Tehran | Premium Green | No | 5.55 | +3.2 | Firm |
| Cumin seeds (premium black) | IR | Tehran | Premium Black | No | 9.06 | +4.9 | Strong |
| Cumin seeds | EG | Kairo | 99.9% | No | 4.95 | 0.0 | Steady |
| Cumin powder | SY | Dordrecht | – | No | 4.92 | 0.0 | Steady |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Lack of Chinese demand is the key drag on prices, with Chinese buyers showing little interest following last season’s heavy buying from India.
- Global supply anticipation: Traders expect fresh cumin crops from Turkey, Syria, and China to hit the market from July, weighing on sentiment. Early reports indicate a slight output dip in China, but no firm data.
- Lower arrivals at Unjha (10,000-12,000 bags/day) have failed to boost prices, reflecting sluggish domestic buying and exporter hesitancy.
- Seasonal export slowdown: Light rains beginning in Gujarat mark the Indian monsoon, typically slowing outflows of agricultural goods, cumin included.
- India remains the world’s largest exporter, with the latest Spices Board data showing a 60% YoY volume increase in exports despite weaker global demand.
📊 Fundamentals & Comparative Data
| Country | Estimated Production (2024, tonnes) | Stock Position (est.) | Export Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~800,000* | Good | Strong exporter; 211,144 t shipped Apr-24–Feb-25 |
| Turkey | 55,000* | New crop entering | Seasonal exporter |
| Syria | 30,000* | New crop entering | Seasonal exporter |
| China | 70,000* | Unclear, dip possible | Usually imports from India; buying sluggish |
| Iran | 33,000* | Moderate | Selective exporter (premium grades) |
*Estimates based on trade and agri ministry/preliminary field reports.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- India (Gujarat): Southwest monsoon onset with light showers. No immediate crop threat, but excess rainfall could disrupt storage and logistics.
- Turkey, Syria, China: Crop conditions mostly normal, though scattered showers in Turkey/Syria are being monitored for harvest impact. Chinese weather remains broadly favorable.
- Weather impact: Monsoon in India could briefly hamper arrivals and exports if heavy. Weather in rival producing regions will dictate July harvest volume.
📌 Key Market Drivers
- Continued demand absence from China keeps Unjha prices under pressure.
- India’s exports remain robust, but impending monsoon could dampen near-term flows.
- Fresh supply anticipated globally starting July, capping any strong price recovery for now.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term: Prices likely remain soft to sideways amid supply overhang, with cautious tone advised for large buyers.
- Downside risk appears limited near recent lows, but a weak overseas demand backdrop justifies patience for exporters.
- Upside momentum possible if Chinese purchase interest revives or adverse weather hits Turkey/Syria crops.
- Premium grades (GL Gulab Jeera, Ganesh Jeera) holding value better than standard machine-clean or normal grades.
- Monitor Turkish, Syrian, and Chinese output reports in July for new direction cues.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Market | Current Price Range (USD/t) | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unjha (Normal Quality) | 258 – 266/quintal | Soft to sideways; small further decline possible | Bearish |
| Unjha (Machine-clean) | 270 – 285/quintal | Sideways, slight weakness | Weak |
| Premium Grades (GL Gulab/ Ganesh) | $48–48.60/20kg | Stable to mildly firm | Steady |
| Indian Export FOB (Grade A) | 2.44 – 5.30/kg | Slightly soft | Soft |
| Middle East, EU (Import Market) | 4.05 – 9.06/kg | Stable, waiting for new crop signals | Steady |
