The global cumin market stands at a critical crossroads as international supply dynamics undergo significant shifts. India, the world’s largest producer and exporter accounting for over 70% of global output, remains the key price maker. This dominance is underscored by a notable 60% year-on-year rise in exports from April 2024 to February 2025, with volumes reaching over 211,000 tonnes and export revenue climbing to nearly $69 million USD. Nonetheless, the international price environment has stayed muted, with subdued demand capping any upward price movement—even as Indian exporters enjoy strong momentum.
Outside India, political volatility and poor weather loom over secondary origins. Cumin harvests in Turkey and Syria are forecast to shrink significantly due to ongoing conflict and instability, with Syria’s output dropping from an average 15,000 tonnes to as little as 2,000-4,000 tonnes. Turkey faces similar declines. Meanwhile, Iran’s crop—almost exclusively channeled to Japan—will have limited effect on the broader market, and Chinese output, threatened by unfavorable weather, may keep China reliant on imports. Afghanistan’s modest supply continues, partly serving Indian processors. Upcoming harvests in July-August across Turkey, Syria, and China offer a short-term supply bump but are unlikely to drastically alter the balance.
Amid this backdrop, Indian domestic cumin prices are seen softening only slightly with seasonal arrivals; significant drops are unlikely as prices near cyclical lows. As global stocks adjust to both supply disruptions and shifting trade flows, the cumin market enters the summer critical but cautiously stable.
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📈 Prices
| Origin | Product Description | Purity/Grade | Price (USD/kg, FOB) | Weekly Change | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | Cumin seeds, grade – A, whole, organic | – | 5.34 | 0 | New Delhi |
| India | Cumin seeds, grade – A, 99% purity | 99% | 2.60 | 0 | New Delhi |
| India | Cumin seeds, grade – A, 98% purity | 98% | 2.45 | 0 | New Delhi |
| Egypt | Cumin seeds, 99.9% purity | 99.9% | 5.00 | -0.03 | Cairo |
| Iran | Cumin seeds, green, premium | – | 5.55 | +0.17 | Tehran |
| Iran | Cumin seeds, black, premium | – | 9.06 | +0.42 | Tehran |
| Syria | Cumin seeds (FCA Netherlands) | – | 4.05 | 0 | Dordrecht |
| Syria | Cumin powder (FCA Netherlands) | – | 4.92 | 0 | Dordrecht |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Supplies remain ample after a bumper export year, but the market faces sluggish global demand that keeps price growth capped.
- Syria & Turkey: Severe production cuts expected due to persistent conflict and instability. Syria’s output may plunge below 4,000 tonnes, versus a normal 15,000 tonnes; Turkey also faces reductions.
- China: Domestic consumption outpaces production (15,000–16,000 tonnes); China remains a net importer, largely dependent on India, with further risk from unfavorable weather this year.
- Afghanistan: Steady at 1,500–2,000 tonnes, with ongoing Indian imports.
- Iran: Crop mainly for Japanese market; lower production expected but minimal global price effect.
- Upcoming July–August harvests in secondary producing countries should briefly expand supply, but will not fully compensate for overall reductions.
📊 Fundamentals
- Trade Flows: Syria and Turkey are likely to supplement reduced supply by re-importing Indian cumin and re-exporting at a premium.
- India’s Market Share: India exported 211,143.75 tonnes of cumin from April 2024 to February 2025 (up 60%), with export value climbing to $68.8 million (up 12%).
- Stock Position: Global stocks under mild pressure due to lower Syrian and Turkish output; India holds buffer with robust supply.
- Speculation: Subdued international demand limits speculative buying; ample Indian supply reduces risk of sharp rallies.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- India: Generally stable crop weather; no major concern for ongoing shipments.
- Syria/Turkey: Weather’s role overshadowed by socio-political unrest, which directly cuts acreage/harvests.
- China: Unfavorable weather this season threatens to further curb output; deficits likely to intensify imports.
- Iran & Afghanistan: Marginal weather-related risks, but production already set to decline due to structural issues.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | Annual Output (tonnes) | Stock/Export Comments |
|---|---|---|
| India | ~700,000 | Largest export share, strong stocks |
| China | 15,000–16,000 | Domestic demand > production, net importer |
| Syria | 2,000–4,000 (2025 est.) | Exports fall sharply, reliant on Indian supply |
| Turkey | <4,000 (2025 est.) | Lower than normal due to instability |
| Iran | Diminished, mainly to Japan | Export market limited |
| Afghanistan | 1,500–2,000 | Supplies to India and region |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Indian cumin prices may soften modestly as global supply ticks up, but downside is limited given low price base and steady Indian stocks.
- Short-term speculative rallies are unlikely unless weather or supply shocks emerge in July-August harvest.
- Exporters should target value-added and quality-conscious buyers as subdued demand curbs bulk purchasing.
- Importing firms are advised to cover near-term needs as residual risks remain for late-summer supplies from Syria and Turkey.
- Watch Chinese buying trends—if production shortfalls persist, India could see renewed export strength in Q3 2025.
📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Current Price (USD/kg, FOB) | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| India (New Delhi, grade A – 99%) | 2.60 | 2.55 – 2.62 | Slightly Bearish |
| India (New Delhi, whole, organic) | 5.34 | 5.30 – 5.36 | Stable |
| Egypt (Cairo, 99.9%) | 5.00 | 4.95 – 5.05 | Slightly Bearish |
| Iran (Tehran, premium green) | 5.55 | 5.45 – 5.60 | Stable |