Cumin Market Analysis: Weak Sentiment Persists Amid Ample Supply and Sluggish Exports

The global cumin market is under clear pressure as both domestic demand and export buying remain tepid, resulting in persistent price weakness. Key mandis in India are witnessing daily arrivals rising sharply by 8,000–10,000 bags, reflecting an oversupplied market and a sense of urgency as farmers offload old stock ahead of the new harvest. On the buyer’s side, both domestic consumption and overseas demand are stagnant, with international buyers largely staying on the sidelines in anticipation of further price corrections—despite current lows.

The export landscape is particularly challenging this year. Traditional buyers in the Middle East and Europe are showing little appetite for bulk purchases, deterred by rising freight costs and an overall sense of volatility. Meanwhile, India’s cumin exports slipped slightly—both in volume and value—year-on-year. Weather remains a key watch factor; recent rains in Gujarat have delayed drying and affected processing, but overall crop health and the sowing outlook remain stable with nearly half a million hectares under cultivation. With inventories heavy and no major demand triggers forecast, most analysts expect prices to remain range-bound with a mild downward bias in the near term.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type/Purity	Organic	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Date	Sentiment
Cumin seeds	IN	New Delhi	whole, grade – A	Yes	FOB	5.10	5.14	2025-10-03	Bearish
Cumin seeds	IN	New Delhi	grade – A, 99%	No	FOB	2.30	2.32	2025-10-03	Bearish
Cumin seeds	IN	New Delhi	grade – A, 98%	No	FOB	2.15	2.17	2025-10-03	Bearish
Cumin seeds	EG	Kairo	99.9%	No	FOB	4.75	4.77	2025-10-03	Bearish
Cumin seeds	EG	Kairo	black, grade – A	No	FOB	2.14	2.16	2025-10-03	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Domestic arrivals in India have surged, with 8,000–10,000 bags per day reported in major mandis, flooding the market.
• Farmers are clearing old stocks ahead of the new harvest, leading to short-term oversupply.
• Domestic demand is steady but not strong enough to absorb excess arrivals.
• Export inquiries are muted, with many buyers waiting for further price drops.
• India exported 278,000 tonnes of cumin worth US$870 million in 2024–25, slightly below the prior year’s figures, attributed to price pressure and delayed shipments.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Crop Outlook: Sowing is expected to reach around 500,000 ha, in line with historical averages.
• Inventories: Remain high, both at farmer and trader levels. No evidence of significant destocking yet.
• Speculative Positioning: Short-term traders are maintaining bearish stances, expecting more downside before a reversal.
• Previous Price Trends: Benchmark mandi prices in Gujarat and Rajasthan currently range from US$22.80–23.40/kg, down US$2.30–2.50/kg over the past few weeks.
• Freight Costs: Continue to impact Indian exporters, reducing price competitiveness in key overseas markets.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India (Gujarat & Rajasthan): Seasonal weather remains generally favorable for cumin, with minor disruptions from local rains affecting harvest drying and some processing.
• New Crop: Prospects are stable due to timely sowing and overall good climatic conditions to date.
• Potential Impact: As long as weather holds, no significant reduction in yields is expected, but continued rainfall could delay new market arrivals or create local quality issues.

🌐 Global Production & Inventory Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production Estimate (tonnes)	2024/25 Exports (tonnes)	Stock Situation
India	~850,000	278,000	Heavy stock at farm/trader level
Syria	Smaller, variable	Low (political disruptions)	Moderate
Egypt	Medium	Rising (price advantage)	Stable to up

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Bearish to range-bound, as supply exceeds demand and buyers remain cautious.
• Buyers: Wait for further corrections unless urgent needs. Price downside risk remains.
• Sellers: Offload old stocks before new crop arrivals intensify.
• Exporters: Stay alert for lower freight rates and recovery in overseas demand before locking large contracts.
• Traders: Watch for weather-related disruptions and shipment trends, but avoid aggressive long positions while sentiment is soft.

🗺️ 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Markets)

Market	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Range (EUR/kg)	Trend
India, grade A (New Delhi, FOB)	2.30	2.25 – 2.35	Weak
India, premium organic (New Delhi, FOB)	5.10	5.05 – 5.15	Range-bound
Egypt, 99.9% (Kairo, FOB)	4.75	4.70 – 4.80	Weak