Cumin Market Cools—Spot Prices Ease as Supplies Rise and Demand Stays Tepid

The cumin (jeera) market is entering a phase of pronounced softness, with downward price momentum persisting across both spot and futures contracts. A combination of subdued export and domestic demand is meeting with robust post-harvest arrivals, tilting the balance in favor of buyers. In India’s benchmark Unjha market, prices continued their recent decline, falling to around USD 240/100 kg—down almost USD 8 week-on-week. On international trade desks, Indian cumin seed FOB offers in New Delhi for Grade A ‘whole, organic’ product are quoted at €5.10 per kg, while top qualities for export-grade 99% and 98% purity have followed suit, dipping to €2.3/kg and €2.15/kg respectively.

This price action underscores persistently sluggish demand from both exporters and stockists, who seem unwilling to absorb further inventory amid little evidence of a near-term demand revival. NCDEX October cumin futures registered only a marginal up-tick, suggesting that speculative positioning is currently restrained, likely awaiting stronger signals from fundamentals or external events. Weather conditions in major producing states, especially Gujarat and Rajasthan, are favorable, supporting increased field activity and the throughput of new-crop supplies. Without bullish catalysts on the horizon in export markets or supply shocks induced by weather, market sentiment is cautious, and the near-term price outlook remains bearish.

📈 Cumin Prices Snapshot

Product	Origin	Purity/Type	Location	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Cumin seeds (whole, organic, grade A)	IN	Whole, Organic	New Delhi	5.10	5.14	-0.04	Bearish
Cumin seeds (grade A, 99% purity)	IN	99%	New Delhi	2.30	2.32	-0.02	Bearish
Cumin seeds (grade A, 98% purity)	IN	98%	New Delhi	2.15	2.17	-0.02	Bearish
Cumin seeds (grade A, 99% purity)	IN	99%	New Delhi	2.30	2.33	-0.03	Bearish
Cumin seeds (grade A, 98% purity)	IN	98%	Gujarat – Unjha	2.30	2.32	-0.02	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Spot market arrivals: Elevated in major Indian mandis, especially Unjha and New Delhi, boosting available stocks.
• Export demand: Remains sluggish amid high international prices and trade caution; main destinations like the Middle East and Europe are running down inventories rather than restocking.
• Domestic demand: Subdued due to ample replacement supplies and limited offtake from big trading houses and whip-sawing retail interest.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Futures activity: October NCDEX cumin futures rose marginally (+0.21% to USD 230.50/100 kg), highlighting limited speculative interest.
• Inventories: Indian mandi stocks are reported to be comfortable, alleviating upside pressures.
• Speculative Positioning: Overall neutral, with no major build-up reported in the futures segment.

☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• India (Gujarat, Rajasthan): Recent reports confirm favorable, dry harvest weather, ensuring timely cumin arrivals and good crop quality. No immediate weather threats are reported for the next week.
• Egypt, Syria: Reports remain neutral, with stable growing conditions and regular flow to Western European markets.

Impact: Absence of adverse weather enhances the probability of steady arrivals and a lack of supply shocks—further reinforcing bearish sentiment.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023/24 Output (Thousand MT)	2023/24 Stocks (Thousand MT)	Trend
India	290*	High	Stable
Syria	20*	Normal	Stable
Egypt	17*	Normal	Stable

(*estimates; actual figures may vary, awaiting official updates.)

📌 Key Market Drivers

• Robust arrivals in Indian mandis, enhancing short-term supply.
• Muted offtake from both domestic buyers and international markets.
• Lackluster trade activity, with futures reflecting little speculative build-up.
• Favorable weather in the Indian growing belt, reducing upside risk.

🛠️ Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Sellers: Consider hedging forward sales or liquidating existing stocks as further softening is possible in absence of external shocks.
• Buyers: Wait for further dips or only make need-based spot purchases—bulk procurement may yield additional discounts if current conditions persist.
• Exporters: Monitor signals from Middle Eastern and European buyers, as their seasonal re-entry could spark only limited upside.
• Speculators: Margins are thin—market is rangebound with little short-term directional catalysts.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast: Key Markets

Market/Exchange	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Outlook
Unjha Spot (IN)	~2.30	2.27 – 2.32	Bearish/Stable
New Delhi FOB (Whole, Grade A)	5.10	5.05 – 5.15	Stable
Kairo FOB (99.9% purity)	4.75	4.70 – 4.80	Stable

[p style=”font-size:smaller;”]Forecast assumes no shock events/favorable weather persists. Watch for unexpected export orders or policy moves for volatility triggers.[/p]