The cumin market continues to struggle under the weight of sluggish demand, with recent weeks seeing a steady decline in prices across major wholesale mandis. Both domestic buyers and the key export markets of Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Gulf countries have pulled back, weakening overall market sentiment. In Delhi, prices for benchmark cumin hovered between $252–$257 per 100 kg, confirming the downward trajectory that has persisted through the beginning of August 2025. Medium and top-quality cumin still command a premium, yet even these segments are not immune to softer prices as stalled export orders and fluctuating currency rates dampen speculative interest.
Exporters cite high inventory levels overseas as a primary reason for deferred shipments, signaling that a meaningful price recovery is unlikely without a resurgence in export orders or surprise domestic buying—such as for festive season demand. Market analysts caution that, absent new catalysts, further downside is possible. The overall mood remains cautious and defensive, with attention now focused on the export order flow and demand signals from India’s upcoming festivals. As weather conditions and monsoon patterns play into the yield and supply outlook, participants remain alert for any sudden supply-side shocks or policy changes that could alter the current stagnation.
📈 Prices & Recent Trends
| Origin | Type/Grade | Purity | Organic | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Week | Change | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN (New Delhi) | Grade A | 99% | No | New Delhi | 2.37 | 2.42 | -0.05 | 2025-08-09 |
| IN (New Delhi) | Grade A | 98% | No | New Delhi | 2.22 | 2.27 | -0.05 | 2025-08-09 |
| IN (New Delhi) | 99% | No | New Delhi | 2.38 | 2.43 | -0.05 | 2025-08-09 | |
| IN (Gujarat-Unjha) | 98% | No | Gujarat | 2.37 | 2.42 | -0.05 | 2025-08-09 | |
| EG (Cairo) | 99.9% | No | Cairo | 4.90 | 4.93 | -0.03 | 2025-08-08 | |
| EG (Cairo) | Black, Grade A | No | Cairo | 2.20 | 2.23 | -0.03 | 2025-08-08 | |
| IR (Tehran) | Green, Premium | No | Tehran | 5.73 | 5.67 | +0.06 | 2025-07-23 | |
| IR (Tehran) | Black, Premium | No | Tehran | 9.87 | 9.51 | +0.36 | 2025-07-23 |
- Market sentiment: Bearish across major exporting regions with slight uptick in Iranian premiums.
- Weekly change: Most Indian origins posted a 2–3% decline from the previous week.
- Premiums: Iranian cumin, especially premium grades, show mild gains on constrained supply.
🌍 Supply & Demand Factors
- Export Demand: Key buyers in the subcontinent (Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka) and Gulf countries are taking a wait-and-see approach due to well-stocked inventories and currency volatility.
- Domestic Buying: Remains subdued except for sporadic necessity-led purchases; limited festive demand could support prices briefly.
- Exports Flow: Delays in shipment noted as buyers postpone deliveries, extending the price pressure on exporters.
- Import Substitution: Some markets (notably in the Gulf) are switching to alternative origins like Egypt and Iran for specialty grades.
📊 Fundamental Data & Market Drivers
- Stock Levels: High exporter and importer inventories compared to seasonal averages, reducing urgency for spot buying.
- Speculator Positioning: Little evidence of fresh speculative long positions, with most trading houses hedging cautiously or standing aside.
- Currency Impact: Recent INR volatility versus USD and EUR creates additional uncertainty for Indian exporters.
- Government & Policy: No new government intervention or MSP changes reported.
🌦 Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- India (Rajasthan/Gujarat): The southwest monsoon has been somewhat erratic but remains close to historical averages for the season. No major adverse events, though isolated dry spells are reported; if extended, could trim late-planted crop yields.
- Egypt/Iran: Favorable weather for late-season harvesting, supporting high-quality production but not significantly boosting volumes.
- Syria/Turkey: Stable weather with sufficient soil moisture—yields stable, but no significant export pressure yet.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | Est. 2024/25 Output (‘000 MT) | Carryover Stocks (‘000 MT) | Primary Export Destinations |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 250–265 | 90 | Bangladesh, Gulf, Sri Lanka |
| Iran | 15–18 | 5 | EU, Turkey, Russia |
| Egypt | 5–7 | 2 | EU, Gulf |
| Syria, Turkey, Others | 8 | 1 | Regional |
- India remains the dominant producer with wide margin; other origins are niche/specialty suppliers.
- Carryover stocks globally at multi-year highs, limiting price upside in the short run.
📆 Market Outlook & Trading Recommendations
- Expect sideways-to-downside movement unless there is a clear revival in export demand or major weather disruption.
- Monitor India’s festive season buying for near-term bounce risk; any uptick likely short-lived unless it triggers renewed overseas interest.
- Exporters should consider risk-hedging for existing contracts and minimize aggressive new sales until spot market stabilizes.
- Importers can negotiate harder and lock in lower prices for forward contracts as current sentiment is favorable to buyers.
- Watch forex trends and inventory movements in key consuming countries for reversal signals.
🗓 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (Grade A, 99%) | 2.37 | 2.34–2.37 | Bearish/Stable |
| Gujarat-Unjha (98%) | 2.37 | 2.35–2.37 | Bearish |
| Cairo (99.9%) | 4.90 | 4.85–4.95 | Sideways |
| Tehran (Green, Premium) | 5.73 | 5.70–5.78 | Stable/Firm |
