Cumin Market Holds Steady: Indian Festival Demand and Modest Export Activity Shape Short-Term Outlook

The global cumin market continues its phase of cautious optimism, with Indian cumin (jeera) showing stable prices amid restrained export demand and incremental support from domestic consumption. Over the past week, trade activity from China and Bangladesh brought mild buying interest, but bulk orders remain noticeably absent, keeping trade volumes on the lower side. However, local sentiment at India’s key trading hub, Gujarat’s Unjha mandi, slightly improved on hopes for more export inquiries and the ongoing festive season in India, which traditionally boosts domestic consumption.

As a result, cumin prices have held steady, supported by select small export orders and regular festival demand, while both growers and traders await larger overseas deals to potentially set the stage for firmer market movements. With India exporting 187,171 tones between April and July 2025 and weather conditions turning favorable in major producing zones, the cumin market appears range-bound—supported but lacking strong bullish drivers for now.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Product	Origin	Location	Grade/Purity	Organic	Price (EUR/kg, FOB/FCA)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Date	Market Sentiment
Cumin seeds	IN	New Delhi	Whole, Grade A	Yes	5.14	5.14	2025-09-26	Steady; mild positive
Cumin seeds	IN	New Delhi	Grade A, 99%	No	2.32	2.32	2025-09-26	Steady
Cumin seeds	IN	New Delhi	Grade A, 98%	No	2.17	2.17	2025-09-26	Steady
Cumin seeds	IN	Unjha, Gujarat	98%	No	2.32	2.32	2025-09-26	Range-bound
Cumin seeds	EG	Kairo	99.9%	No	4.77	4.80	2025-09-26	Slight softening

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Export demand: Modest orders to China (25–30 containers) and Bangladesh. Exporters report demand is still below average but the presence of regular, if small, orders lends mild support.
• Festival season in India: Strong domestic consumption for festive cooking provides a safety net on the downside, preventing further price erosion.
• Oversupply risk: No sign of bulk buying or significant restocking by importers—market awaiting larger-scale overseas interest.
• Previous export performance: India shipped 187,171 tonnes (USD 318m) from April–July 2025, reflecting the country’s dominant position but also revealing a moderation in year-on-year growth as buyers remain cautious amid adequate stockpiles.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

• Production: India remains the world’s top producer (estimated >70% global share). Harvest conditions were largely favorable in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2025, boosting quality and yields.
• Inventories: Both domestic and international stocks appear sufficient, limiting upward price momentum even with mild upticks in demand.
• Speculative activity: Little speculative interest noted—most trading is linked to genuine physical demand rather than futures-driven moves.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Gujarat/Rajasthan: Recent weather reports indicate normal to slightly above-average rainfall, promoting healthy vegetative growth in any late plantings and aiding soil moisture for next season’s sowing.
• Egypt & Syria: Stable weather, but Egyptian prices are showing a slight softening on availability of stocks; no adverse weather impacts reported.
• Short-Term Impact: No immediate weather threats; supportive for stable-to-range-bound price regime.

🌏 Global Comparison: Production & Stocks

Country	2025 Production (‘000 tonnes)	Key Stock Trends
India	~360	Comfortable; regular domestic & export flows
Egypt	~55	Ample; prices softening slightly (EUR 4.77/kg)
Syria	~23	Stable; moderate export pace to Europe
Turkey	~17	Stable
Others	~10	Minimal market share

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🔹 For exporters: Maintain current pace; be prepared for quick shipments if larger orders emerge from China/Middle East.
• 🔹 For importers: Near-term buying recommended only for pipeline replenishment; hefty stocks available and prices are unlikely to rise sharply unless bulk buying resumes.
• 🔹 For traders: Monitor festival-driven demand spikes in India and signs of fresh bulk overseas orders. Until then, maintain a cautious, low-inventory stance.
• 🔹 Key watch: Any significant change in Chinese demand, unexpected weather events, or a sudden drawdown of Indian inventories.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Product	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Trend	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)
New Delhi (IN)	Cumin seeds, Grade A, 99%	2.32	Stable	2.30 – 2.35
Unjha, Gujarat (IN)	Cumin seeds, 98%	2.32	Stable	2.30 – 2.34
Kairo (EG)	Cumin seeds, 99.9%	4.77	Softening	4.75 – 4.80