During this week, the decline in cumin seed prices in local wholesale markets has not only halted but has also picked up a bit of momentum. Insider reports suggest that there is a growing demand for Disavars cumin seeds, but exporters have yet to fully engage in the market. Experts opine that if exporters become more active, the threat of a recession in the cumin market will significantly diminish.
If the level of exports in the cumin market increases, there’s no need to worry about a recession looming on the horizon.
Current Market Prices and Demand
Cumin, in the local grocery market, is currently priced at approximately $6.00 per kg, and due to robust purchasing, it has climbed to a range of $8,50 to $9,00 per kg. This upward trend has been consistent, with similar increases observed in the preceding days. Traders point out that following the recent slump, there is renewed interest in cumin due to its attractive pricing. If this trend of robust demand continues in the coming days and beyond, the spectre of a recession may fade away.
Jatin Patel, a businessman operating from Unjha Mandi, mentioned that approximately four and a half thousand bags of cumin have entered the market, involving both farmers and stockists. With consistent arrivals and heightened purchasing activity, ‘Ganesh’ cumin seeds have risen by about $2.03 to $235 – $240 per 20 kilograms. ‘GL Gulab’ cumin has also gained momentum.
Export and Production Statistics
Despite the relatively high wholesale prices of cumin in domestic markets, the export of this vital grocery commodity has remained robust in the current fiscal year. According to data from the Spices Board, cumin production in the first three months of the fiscal year 2023-24 reached approximately 53,399.64 tonnes, generating revenue of around $248.57 million. In the corresponding period a year ago, the country exported 47,190 tonnes of cumin worth approximately $126.82 million.
Shri Patel added that if Gujarat experiences insufficient rainfall in the next few days and high temperatures persist, there might be difficulties in sowing the new cumin crop, which is slated to start in about a month and a half. However, these concerns are speculative as nature remains unpredictable, and weather forecasts aren’t foolproof due to changing climate patterns.
Conclusion, traders are of the opinion that the intermittent upward trend in cumin prices will continue as long as there is sustained demand in the market. The ebb and flow of cumin prices around the Dussehra festival may also be influenced by weather conditions.