The global cumin (jeera) market is staging a notable recovery after months of subdued demand and soft arrivals that kept prices under pressure. The catalyst behind this upturn is renewed export activity from China, a major buyer, which has re-invigorated market sentiment and shifted short-term outlooks for growers and traders alike. Importers in China have started actively placing orders, particularly for premium-grade cumin, providing crucial support to prices in the face of otherwise lackluster domestic demand. Meanwhile, daily arrivals at India’s largest trading center in Unjha have dropped to around 7,000–8,000 bags, reflecting a tightening in supply that adds further support. Export figures underline the market’s vibrancy: by July, shipments had already crossed 78,086 tons, valued at over USD 1.82 billion. If Chinese buying persists, the 2025–26 marketing year could see exports exceed expectations, benefiting farmers and mandis that have grappled with uneven arrivals and price-sensitive demand from other overseas markets.
However, logistical disruptions in other major spice-exporting countries and concerns over output in key producing regions add layers of complexity and risk to this otherwise bullish narrative. High-grade cumin remains scarce globally, with elevated competition for quality lots, and the weather outlook for major Indian growing belts will be pivotal in determining the next move for prices. Industry watchers now expect prices to remain resilient if current external demand trends continue, though much depends on upcoming crop progress and evolving international buying patterns.
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📈 Prices
| Product | Grade / Purity | Origin | Location | Delivery | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumin seeds | whole, grade – A, organic | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 5.16 | 5.18 | -0.02 | Stable to firm |
| Cumin seeds | grade – A, 99% purity | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 2.34 | 2.36 | -0.02 | Firming |
| Cumin seeds | grade – A, 98% purity | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 2.19 | 2.21 | -0.02 | Firming |
| Cumin seeds | 99% purity | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 2.35 | 2.37 | -0.02 | Stable |
| Cumin seeds | 98% purity | IN | Gujarat – Unjha | FOB | 2.34 | 2.36 | -0.02 | Firm, export-led |
| Cumin powder | grade – A, organic | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 4.35 | 4.33 | +0.02 | Modestly bullish |
| Cumin seeds | 99.9% purity | EG | Kairo | FOB | 4.82 | 4.85 | -0.03 | Softening |
| Cumin seeds | black, grade – A | EG | Kairo | FOB | 2.18 | 2.18 | 0 | Steady |
| Cumin powder | – | SY | Dordrecht (NL) | FCA | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0 | Steady |
| Cumin seed | – | SY | Dordrecht (NL) | FCA | 3.90 | 4.00 | -0.10 | Bearish, local overhang |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Fresh export demand from China is the main driver of the current market tightening.
- Arrivals at Unjha mandi are at 7,000–8,000 bags/day, easing from earlier highs.
- Domestic buying remains subdued, but export interest is offsetting slack in local demand.
- Chinese procurement focused on higher grades due to global shortages.
- International trade complications and competitive demand from other spice-importing countries add bullish momentum.
📊 Fundamentals
- 2025–26 cumin exports projected to increase substantially, with 78,086 tons already shipped by July.
- Export value exceeds USD 1.82 billion, buoyed by robust Chinese activity.
- Overall production estimates are under review; logistical issues and possible quality downgrades elsewhere are supportive for prices.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Indian cumin-growing areas in Gujarat and Rajasthan have experienced uneven rainfall, with recent weather stabilizing field conditions but raising concerns for late-season pests and disease risk.
- Near-term forecast indicates mild temperatures and generally dry weather, supporting harvest logistics but raising concern over soil moisture for late-maturing crops.
- Global weather continues to be a wildcard for crop quality and availability in the secondary exporting countries.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparisons
| Country | 2024 Output Est. (tons) | Stock Level | Key Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~500,000 | Low-to-moderate | Main exporter, lower arrivals YTD |
| Syria | ~34,000 | Normal | Stable, but weaker export pace |
| Egypt | ~48,000 | Moderate | Stable output, firm demand for high grades |
| Turkey | ~14,000 | Low | Modest export role |
| China | Importer | Stock-building | Recently increased imports |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bullish for exporters: Strong Chinese demand should support prices, especially for premium lots.
- Monitor weather: Late-season weather volatility could tighten supplies further.
- Short-term buyers: Secure requirements early as market sentiment turns firm.
- Long-term participants: Watch for signals of weakening Chinese demand or an uptick in Indian arrivals as bearish triggers.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (Grade A, 99% purity) | 2.34 | 2.34–2.38 | Firm, possible upside |
| Unjha, Gujarat (98% purity) | 2.34 | 2.34–2.37 | Stable to firm |
| Kairo (99.9% purity) | 4.82 | 4.80–4.85 | Rangebound |
