The global cumin (jeera) market is currently navigating a critical phase defined by sustained price corrections, as a confluence of ample arrivals and tepid demand undercuts support at key mandis. Over the past week, cumin prices across major Indian markets—especially the flagship Unjha mandi—have softened under the dual pressure of increasing supplies and hesitant buyers, both locally and internationally. Export demand, once a catalyst for sharp rallies, has notably fizzled, dragged down by price resistance, volatile currencies, and a wait-and-see strategy among key buyers in the Middle East, Bangladesh, and the US. With daily arrivals in Unjha surpassing 40,000 bags, up from previous weeks, traders and stockists have switched to a cautious, defensive mode, wary of further declines.
Premium cumin lots are still drawing selective interest, but the overall sentiment remains bearish. Many market actors are holding inventory, anticipating either a rebound in overseas buying or a fresh regulatory announcement to jolt the market out of its stupor. For now, the outlook appears range-bound—unless weather disruptions or a sudden uptick in exports flips the script. Currency fluctuations, especially dollar-rupee volatility, and weather patterns across Gujarat and Rajasthan will be decisive in shaping short-term pricing.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Cumin powder
grade - A
FOB 4.38 €/kg
(from IN)
Cumin seeds
whole, grade - A
FOB 5.26 €/kg
(from IN)
Cumin seeds
grade - A
99%
FOB 2.42 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices & Market Summary
| Market | Grade | Quality/Purity | Latest Price (USD/quintal) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unjha (IN) | Medium | — | $7,800–$8,200 | ↓ $400–$600 | Bearish |
| Unjha (IN) | Premium/Bold | — | $8,600–$9,000 | ↓ $200–$300 | Soft |
| Export Grade | Bold Seeds | — | $9,300–$9,600 | ↓ $200 | Weak |
| Gujarat-Rajasthan | — | — | $7,400–$7,800 | ↓ $200–$400 | Weak |
Latest Product Offers (EUR, FOB/FCA):
| Product | Origin | Quality | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumin powder [details] | IN | Grade A (Organic) | New Delhi | 4.38 | -0.02 |
| Cumin seeds [details] | IN | Whole, Grade A (Organic) | New Delhi | 5.26 | -0.02 |
| Cumin seeds [details] | IN | Grade A, 99% | New Delhi | 2.42 | -0.01 |
| Cumin seeds | EG | 99.9% | Kairo | 4.93 | +0.05 |
| Cumin powder | SY | — | Dordrecht (NL) | 4.95 | +0.03 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Sluggish Export Demand: Middle East, Southeast Asia, and US buyers have slowed purchasing, citing price resistance and FX volatility.
- Domestic Buying Softens: Local traders are mostly sidelined, expecting further price correction or clearer export policy.
- Arrivals Surge: Unjha mandi received over 40,000 bags last week (vs. 30,000 prior), with Rajasthan and Gujarat both reporting improved daily inflows.
- Stockist Behavior: Many are adopting a ‘wait-and-watch’ approach, wary of inventory losses as downside risk persists.
📊 Fundamental Factors
- Total Inventory Pressure: Enhanced farmer selling is driven by favorable weather and prior high prices, pushing more crop into markets.
- Exporter Reluctance: Currency swings—especially the Indian rupee vs USD—are prompting cautious approach and delayed deals.
- Long-term Demand Healthy: While the current lull caps prices, end-user demand in food, spice, and pharmaceutical sectors remains robust over a mid-term view.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- India – Gujarat & Rajasthan: Weather was largely stable and dry, favoring timely harvesting and quick movement of arrivals into mandis. No significant rainfall is forecast over the next week, indicating a steady pace of supply for now.
- Potential Risks: Any surprise showers could disrupt arrivals and support short-term prices, though current outlook suggests minimal disruption for the coming days.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024 Output Est. (MT) | Stock Position | Trends |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~70,000 | Seasonally high | Sustained arrivals; export lull |
| Syria | ~9,000 | Normal | Steady |
| Egypt | ~8,500 | Elevated | Limited premium exports |
| Iran | ~4,000 | Normal | Stable |
| Turkey | ~2,400 | Normal | Small global share |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For Exporters: Delay fresh offers as price correction runs its course; monitor Gulf and Southeast Asian inquiries for potential pickup.
- For Importers: Consider phased buying, especially if coverage is thin—further downside may be limited by seasonal supply peaks.
- For Stockists/Traders: Hedge inventory if possible; remain agile as a swift change in Gulf of currency news could spark volatility.
- Key Short-term Risks: Unseasonal rain, sudden export order revival, or Indian government export policy adjustments.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Price Range (USD/quintal) | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Unjha (IN) | $7,750–$8,150 | Weak-to-stable |
| Export Grade | $9,250–$9,550 | Soft |
| Gujarat Mandis | $7,350–$7,700 | Soft |
Note: Current supply conditions suggest further declines are limited. Watch for sharp upward moves on sudden export or policy developments.
