Cumin Market Under Pressure: Prices Stabilize Amid Supply Squeeze and Looming Festive Demand

The global cumin market is at a pivotal juncture as prices, after a prolonged period of decline, show clear signs of bottoming out. This season, subdued prices have caught the attention of buyers worldwide, setting the stage for a potential export resurgence, particularly from India—the world’s top producer and exporter of cumin seed. India’s exports have dipped year-on-year due to a sharp drop in production and softer international demand, but the shrinking supply and quality preference for Indian cumin are widely expected to firm up both prices and export volumes as the new quarter approaches.

Market insiders report that no further sharp price falls are anticipated, and with lower carryover stocks and robust festive and international demand on the horizon, a tighter market is likely. Meanwhile, adverse weather in major growing regions has slashed Indian output by nearly 18% to 75,000–80,000 tons for 2024–25, compared to last season’s 90,000–95,000 tons. Buyers are now actively positioning themselves to lock in supplies at still-attractive price levels, with significant shipments already booked to Gulf countries, Vietnam, China, the US, and Europe. In short, cumin’s value proposition for both exporters and importers has rarely been stronger—now is the time to monitor this market closely for fast-evolving opportunities.

📈 Price Overview and Key Market Prices

Origin	Description	Purity	Organic	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (€/kg)	Previous Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment	Link
India	Cumin seeds, whole, grade – A	–	Yes	New Delhi	FOB	5.14	5.16	-0.02	Stable, firming	View
India	Cumin seeds, grade – A	99%	No	New Delhi	FOB	2.32	2.34	-0.02	Stable, firming	View
India	Cumin seeds, grade – A	98%	No	New Delhi	FOB	2.17	2.19	-0.02	Stable	View
Egypt	Cumin seeds	99.9%	No	Kairo	FOB	4.80	4.82	-0.02	Stable	View
Egypt	Cumin seeds, black, grade – A	–	No	Kairo	FOB	2.15	2.18	-0.03	Softening	View
Syria	Cumin powder	–	No	Nederland (Dordrecht)	FCA	4.75	4.75	0.00	Stable	View

🌍 Supply & Demand Insights

• Production Drop: India’s 2024–25 cumin output fell to 75,000–80,000 tons (down 15–18% y/y) on adverse growing weather.
• Export Surge Potential: Despite this year’s lower exports in Q1 (62,860 tons vs. 78,086 last year), cumulative full-year (2024–25) exports reached 229,881 tons (+38% y/y by volume), supported by previous strong quarters.
• Inventory Levels: Carryover stocks are reported to be low, supporting current price stability.
• Global Competition: Indian cumin continues to be the quality benchmark, but Egypt and Syria are supplying at attractive prices, mainly for lower grades.
• Immediate Outlook: Over 3,900 tons are now loading for Gulf, Vietnam, China, the US, and EU, signaling renewed demand.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Weather Impact: Unseasonal rains and high temperatures in major growing regions (Rajasthan, Gujarat) limited yields.
• Export Momentum: Lower current prices, now seen as bottoming, are catalyzing new international demand from key destinations.
• Seasonal Demand: Anticipation of Diwali and major food festivals should raise domestic and export orders, firming prices through Q4 2025.
• Speculative Activity: Lower stocks and recent price stability could attract new speculative buying, supporting a bullish short-term trend.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

• India (Rajasthan & Gujarat): Forecasts indicate typical monsoon withdrawal in late September, with mild post-monsoon showers possible. Temperatures set to moderate, improving upcoming sowing prospects but not benefiting the just-harvested crop.
• Minimum immediate weather risk, but vigilance advised for late-season rainfall which could disrupt warehouse-stored stocks.
• Egypt & Syria: Stable dry weather, supporting normal trade flows.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023/24 (tons)	2024/25 (tons)	YoY Change
India	90,000–95,000	75,000–80,000	-15% to -18%
Egypt	Est. 12,000	Est. 13,000	+8%
Syria	Est. 7,000	Est. 7,000	0%

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For Exporters: Current price levels are attractive for forward bookings; position for expected Q4 demand boost due to upcoming festivals.
• For Importers: Consider increasing coverage as the downside is limited; supplies may tighten further as stocks dwindle.
• For Traders: Volatility may rise with renewed speculative interest and short covering at current price support levels.
• Risk Watch: Monitor currency trends and weather updates for harvest/warehouse stability.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Exchange/Location	Direction	Range (€/kg)
India	New Delhi, Unjha Mandis	Firm/Up	2.30 – 2.35
Egypt	Cairo Port	Stable	4.75 – 4.85
Europe	Rotterdam/Dordrecht	Stable	3.90 – 4.00