In 2023, cumin futures skyrocketed and reached record highs, exceeding $7,31 per kg on NCDEX, representing a remarkable 90% increase. The surge in prices has been fueled by supply concerns amid robust demand, particularly in the export sector. Since the beginning of the year, jeera prices have more than doubled, with the September contracts closing at $7,43 and reaching a peak of $7,51 intraday.
At the Unjha agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) yard, the modal price of cumin was $ 6,94 on Tuesday, soaring to a high of $ 7,13 on July 6.
The cumin market is facing saturation, and the next crop is not expected until February-March 2024. Currently, supplies are inadequate, with only 0.70-0.72 million bags available (50 kg each) against a demand of 0,85 million bags, including exports. Unfavorable weather conditions in key cumin-growing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan have contributed to a 4.11% drop in production this year, further limiting supplies.
Despite the Spices Board’s first advance estimates showing a 12% increase in production for 2022-23, market estimates suggest a 8-12% decrease compared to initial projections. Global production was anticipated to be higher, but net supplies from India were projected to be 7% lower.
With soaring prices and limited supplies, traders are currently operating in a hand-to-mouth situation. There is no bearish sentiment in the market, and prices are expected to rise another 20-25%.
Buyers in the domestic market are likely to become more active as the next new crop is not expected until the last week of February 2024. Moreover, there are indications that farmers in Rajasthan may switch to growing more cumin instead of coriander due to the favorable market conditions for cumin.
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