The wheat market is facing a challenging period with stagnant prices and adverse weather conditions impacting harvests in Western Europe.
Harvest and Yield Issues
Despite gains on Wednesday, the wheat trade on Euronext consolidated without further upward impetus. The overall situation has seen little change. Hoped-for quick harvests in France and Germany have again been interrupted by rainfall this week. Yields are weak, often about 20% below the average of recent years.
The market continues to lack momentum for rising prices. Harvesting in Western Europe remains difficult, frequently interrupted by rain. Wheat futures on the Euronext closed slightly weaker on Thursday, with the most traded December contract dropping by 0.75 EUR to 226.75 EUR/ton.
Export and Demand
- Western Europe: The export business in Western Europe is sluggish due to a lack of demand. When there is interest from buyers, deliveries usually come from the Black Sea region.
- USDA Report: The USDA’s export report on Thursday indicated net wheat sales of 286,600 tons for the 2024/25 season, which is at the lower end of the expected range of 250,000 to 550,000 tons.
Russian Production Forecast
Russia has maintained its official forecast for grain production this year at 132 million tons, despite adverse weather conditions in many grain-producing regions. This forecast, stated by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev, who oversees the agricultural sector, is a decrease from the record 158 million tons in 2022 and 145 million tons last year. Officials from the Ministry of Agriculture had previously indicated that the current forecast could be revised depending on harvest progress.