Report: Current Status and Trends of Euronext (MATIF) Wheat Futures
Market Overview:
The Euronext wheat markets remained steady on January 7, 2025, with most contracts trading sideways. The benchmark March 2025 contract held unchanged at EUR 230.75/t, reflecting a period of consolidation as market participants monitor global developments such as export forecasts and currency fluctuations.
Key Contract Highlights:
| Contract | Last Price | Daily Change | High | Low | Bid | Ask | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | EUR 230.75/t | EUR 0.00 (0.00%) | – | – | 222.75 | 231.00 | 277,381 |
| May 2025 | EUR 235.50/t | EUR 0.00 (0.00%) | – | – | 235.00 | 238.00 | 147,248 |
| September 2025 | EUR 227.50/t | EUR 0.00 (0.00%) | – | – | 225.50 | 230.00 | 77,113 |
| December 2025 | EUR 233.00/t | EUR 0.00 (0.00%) | – | – | 226.25 | 234.00 | 66,081 |
Key Market Drivers:
- Weather Conditions:
Current weather conditions in major global growing regions remain favourable overall. However, forecasts for the US Midwest indicate potential dryness in the coming weeks, which could negatively impact winter wheat yields. In contrast, the Black Sea region is expecting “beneficial rainfall” during the first half of January, which could support crop development. - Export Forecasts:
- Russia: The Russian government projects exports of only 36.4 million tons for the 2025/26 season, a sharp decline from the 47.0 million tons estimated by the USDA for the current season. This forecast may provide medium-term price support.
- France: FranceAgriMer has reduced its export forecast to non-EU countries to 3.5 million tons, while increasing intra-EU shipments to 6.16 million tons, reflecting shifts in demand dynamics.
- Currency Movements:
The strong US dollar, currently at 1.035 USD/EUR, is making US wheat less competitive globally. This could favour European exporters, particularly in markets like North Africa and the Middle East. - Market Positions:
According to the weekly Euronext report, financial investors reduced their net short positions in milling wheat futures and options from 158,129 contracts to 124,835 contracts. This indicates a slightly more optimistic sentiment among market participants.
Market Outlook:
The stability in Euronext wheat prices suggests a potential consolidation phase. However, adverse weather in the US or the Black Sea region could trigger upward price movements. Additionally, export dynamics and global wheat stock levels will remain key factors influencing the market.
Conclusion:
The Euronext market is cautiously optimistic, supported by stable fundamentals and slightly bullish sentiment. The March 2025 contract could test the EUR 235/t mark in the short term if favourable conditions persist.
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