California weather during October continued to make it tough on growers in the almond market, from the start of bloom in February through the growing period and through harvest. The cooler temperatures, along with rain, delayed the crop and will undoubtedly have an impact on the crop when all is said and done. This has resulted in a very delayed harvest crop with many varieties and sizes still not available. While the situation will resolve itself in the weeks to months ahead, for now, availability remains spotty at best.
The Almond Board of CA released the “September Position Report” on October 12, 2023. We saw crop receipts are finally starting to come in as the 70 million pounds from the “August Position Report” grew to 625 million pounds now received year-to-date. This number is still behind the 978 million pounds received at this point last year. While this number will continue to increase, many are of the mind that the crop will not reach the objective estimate of 2.6 billion pounds.
Strong shipments
September shipments were strong, with 217.7 million pounds shipped for the second month of the new crop year. This is an increase of 15.5% over last year and represents the third strongest September historically. Both export and domestic shipments were up compared to last September. Export shipments reached 154.8 million pounds, up 13.3% from last year’s 136.6 million pounds. Domestic shipments also rebounded, with 62.8 million pounds shipped last month, putting domestic shipments in positive territory for the first time in over a year, 6% year-to-date. As a result, the new crop year is now ahead of last year by 3.1%. Expect October shipments to be the strongest of the season.
Overall commitments have improved slightly from a year ago, with 674 million pounds now on the books compared to 666 million pounds last year at this time. This is primarily driven by export sales, with export commitments at 414 million pounds, up 26.4% versus 327.5 million pounds last year. Domestic commitments are lagging at 260 million pounds, compared to last year’s levels of 338 million pounds, a decrease of 23%.
Harvest Period
October has ended and we are still seeing almonds on the ground waiting to be swept up. In the meantime, we have fought through our third rainstorm of the harvest. This will once again further delay some harvesting operations for a few more weeks.
Bullish Trends
- While the market has firmed and inched up over the last few weeks, pricing remains attractive for buyers. This combination of firmness along with strong shipments, instills confidence in the almond market for everyone.
- New sales for September were very strong with roughly 270 million pounds added, which represents a 12% increase year-over-year. This increase should translate into strong shipments throughout Q4 of 2023
- With crop receipts delayed, the industry has used this time to continue to ship out the 800 million pound carry-out, effectively shipping/selling most of it.
Bearish Trends
- The domestic market is the single largest market for almonds worldwide. While September was a good shipping month for the domestic market, commitments are behind a year ago. These commitments will need to increase to see shipments continue at a strong pace.
- If California does not continue to sell into this market, it could start to lose ground on commitments in the coming months. We may see some markets such as Northeast Asia and even the EU switching to other tree nuts.
- Consumption is still on everyone’s mind as demand remains uncertain. Most markets continue to wait for demand to come in, and whether it will increase in the months ahead.
Source: Nuts by ofi