Desi Chickpeas have emerged as one of the most dynamic agricultural commodities in recent weeks, with solid fundamentals underpinning a robust rally. Domestic prices surged sharply by about $5.42 per quintal, currently closing in the $780–$785 per quintal range after starting the month as low as $685. This momentum is propelled by tighter supplies and steady to rising demand, particularly from millers and Southeast Asian buyers. As market arrivals dwindle—now just 70–80 truckloads per day (down from 100–125 truckloads earlier)—sellers are enjoying firmer ground and price leverage.
Export demand remains resilient, acting as a floor for domestic markets, and several industry observers anticipate that prices may soon breach the $800 per quintal level if trends persist. However, any notable increase in arrivals or shifts in import policy could temper further price gains and tip market balance. Immediate-term outlook remains bullish, but vigilance regarding policy updates and seasonal arrivals is warranted.
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Chickpeas dried
count 42-44, 12 mm
FOB 1.66 €/kg
(from MX)
Chickpeas dried
count 75-80, 8 mm
FOB 1.14 €/kg
(from MX)
Chickpeas dried
count 60-62, 8 mm
FOB 1.22 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Latest Market Rates
| Exchange/Market | Product | Type/Size | Origin | Closing Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (EUR) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOB Mexico City | Chickpeas dried | 42-44, 12 mm | MX | 1.66 | -0.02 | Neutral/Bearish |
| FOB Mexico City | Chickpeas dried | 75-80, 8 mm | MX | 1.14 | -0.02 | Neutral/Bearish |
| FOB New Delhi | Chickpeas dried | 60-62, 8 mm | IN | 1.22 | -0.02 | Neutral/Bearish |
| FOB New Delhi | Chickpeas dried | 58-60, 9 mm | IN | 1.23 | -0.02 | Neutral/Bearish |
| FOB New Delhi | Chickpeas dried | 46-48, 10 mm | IN | 1.27 | -0.02 | Neutral/Bearish |
| FOB New Delhi | Chickpeas dried | 44-46, 11 mm | IN | 1.29 | -0.02 | Neutral/Bearish |
| FOB New Delhi | Chickpeas dried | 42-44, 12 mm | IN | 1.28 | -0.02 | Neutral/Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Arrivals: Current domestic arrivals have dropped to just 70–80 truckloads/day versus earlier season peaks of 100–125, supporting a seller-favorable supply environment.
- Demand: Ongoing procurement from millers and consistent export demand, especially from Southeast Asia, are underpinning the rally.
- Exports: Remain firm; external demand continues to lend bullish support.
- Market Outlook: The scarcity has not only underpinned prices, but also heightened market sensitivity to policy or logistical shifts.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Price Momentum: Up 13.9% (from $685 to $780 per quintal) over the past month on falling arrivals and higher miller offtake.
- Speculative Positioning: Bullish positioning among traders is evident, amplifying short-covering and keeping upside open.
- Potential Headwinds: Any abrupt increase in arrivals or government intervention via import policy change could quickly cap gains.
- International Context: Indian and Mexican FOB price movements show minor easing week-on-week, but aggregate sentiment remains tight on supply-side risks.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Conditions
- India: Central and Northern chickpea-producing regions are experiencing mixed weather – a brief dry spell last week is followed by forecasts of scattered but insufficient rainfall. This supports fears over yield prospect, especially for late-sown crops.
- Mexico: Major growing areas remain dry-to-normal, with no major disruptions reported; however, close monitoring is warranted as any shift towards excessive dryness or rainfall during pod-filling could pressure supplies further.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2023/24 Production (Est. mn t) | 2024/25 Forecast (mn t) | Major Export Destinations |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 11.2 | 10.8* | Bangladesh, UAE, SE Asia |
| Mexico | 0.25 | 0.24 | MENA, EU, USA |
| Turkey | 0.6 | 0.58 | EU, ME |
| Australia | 0.4 | 0.42 | South Asia, EU |
*Note: Indian output trimmed on weather and acreage constraints as per latest updates.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Maintain long positions while monitoring arrivals and policy signals—momentum remains with sellers amid short supplies.
- Consider partial profit booking as prices approach $800/quintal, as market may react swiftly to policy or logistical changes.
- Exporters encouraged to lock in sales for nearby shipments given persistent overseas interest.
- End-users and millers should increase coverage on price dips or as arrivals show signs of further decline.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market/Exchange | Direction | Forecast Range (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|
| FOB New Delhi | ⬆️ Firm | 1.29–1.32 |
| FOB Mexico City | ➡️ Steady/Bullish | 1.13–1.18 |
