Dried Apricots Edge Higher as Malatya Heatwave Meets Firm Old-Crop Demand

Dried apricot prices for Turkish origins in Europe are grinding higher, with FCA NL offers up around 3–4% over the past month while FOB Türkiye levels remain flat but firm. With Malatya now in peak harvest under hot, dry weather, the near-term balance tilts slightly bullish for old-crop and prompt shipments, but ample new-crop fruit should cap any major rally. Market activity is focused on managing the transition between tight old-crop inventories and an incoming large fresh harvest in Malatya. Local sources report high yield expectations for 2026 after a frost-affected prior season, while export demand from Europe remains steady, keeping spot dried prices in Türkiye and key EU hubs broadly stable to slightly firmer. Clear, increasingly hot conditions over the next three days in Malatya and Ankara favour uninterrupted drying, reinforcing expectations of good volume and quality.

Prices

European warehouse prices for Turkish dried apricots in Dordrecht have edged up across all main sizes since mid-June. Size 5 now trades near EUR 6.30/kg FCA NL, versus about EUR 6.00/kg a month ago, while Size 1 is close to EUR 6.80/kg. Smaller industrial cubes have also firmed modestly, indicating broad-based support rather than size-specific tightness.

FOB Türkiye indications from Malatya and Ankara for both sulphured and unsulphured types are largely unchanged over recent weeks in the EUR 7.30–8.80/kg range for conventional material, and around EUR 9.30–10.35/kg for organic lines. The stable FOB versus firmer FCA spread suggests stronger downstream demand in Europe and some tightening of old-crop availability in EU warehouses rather than a sharp move in origin replacement values.

Supply & Demand

Malatya, which typically accounts for the bulk of global dried apricot output, is now in active fresh harvest with local reports pointing to a high-yield 2026 crop after a frost-shortened 2025 season. Turkey’s export-oriented supply chain, dominated by Malatya processors and long-established exporters, appears well-positioned to supply Europe, the key destination for Turkish dried apricots.

Old-crop inventories are described as tight but not exhausted, with exporters prioritising higher-margin sizes and quality grades. Recent analyses highlight that world dried apricot supply outside Türkiye is relatively limited and that carryover stocks in other origins remain low, supporting a firm floor under Turkish prices despite expectations of a bigger new crop.

Weather & Harvest Conditions (Region: TR)

Weather over the next three days in Malatya is forecast to be hot and dry, with daytime highs around 34–36°C and clear skies, providing excellent conditions for sun-drying and minimising quality risks from rain or humidity during the critical early drying phase. Ankara, another processing and logistics hub, will see similar sunny, very warm weather with temperatures reaching 31–35°C, supporting smooth transport and handling.

Earlier in the season, local authorities had warned growers about potential spring frost, but the main bloom and fruit set period passed without major reported damage, and current official and trade commentary continues to point to good overall crop potential. In the very short term, the forecast heatwave may accelerate drying and slightly front-load availability of early lots, but is unlikely to change the broad supply outlook.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Structurally, Türkiye remains the dominant force in global dried apricots, accounting for the majority of world production and exports, with Malatya at the core of this system. Recent export statistics show Turkish dried apricot shipments trending higher in both volume and value, with the EU and UK as primary markets and Asia-Pacific as a growing destination cluster.

Macro factors provide mixed signals. Continued weakness and volatility of the Turkish lira historically support export competitiveness, but high domestic inflation and rising costs for labour, energy and packaging squeeze processors’ margins, limiting the scope for aggressive price cuts in EUR terms. Academic work on Türkiye’s export dynamics indicates that both lira appreciation and high inflation tend to weigh on export volumes, suggesting that exporters will aim to defend value while ensuring throughput.

3-Day Price Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Given firm old-crop demand, tight carryover and favourable harvest weather, the short-term bias for Turkish dried apricot prices is modestly upward, especially for nearby positions in Europe.

• European buyers (FCA NL / PL): Consider covering Q3 physical needs for key sizes (1–5) now, as FCA levels have shown a steady upward drift and further small gains are likely while old-crop remains tight and before large-scale new-crop export offers appear.
• Importers with FOB exposure in Türkiye: With FOB indications stable but sentiment firm, use the current window to lock in volumes on core conventional grades, while keeping some flexibility on premium/organic lines until more definitive new-crop sizing and quality data are available.
• Industrial users (diced/cubes): Prices for cubes have risen faster than for whole fruit, signalling strong processing demand; securing medium-term contracts may hedge against further incremental increases if demand from cereal, snack and ingredient sectors stays strong.

Over the next three days, FCA prices in Northwest Europe and FOB quotes in Türkiye are expected to remain firm to slightly higher, with no immediate weather or policy shocks on the horizon. Any intraday volatility should stay limited, with the broader market awaiting clearer new-crop pricing benchmarks later in the season.