Turkish Dried Apricots Edge Higher in EU While FOB Stays Flat

Prices for Turkish dried apricots are grinding higher on EU FCA bases, while FOB quotations out of Malatya remain broadly flat in EUR, supported by firm export demand and a benign short‑term weather outlook in eastern Türkiye. Across key sizes ex‑Dordrecht, most sulphured Turkish apricot grades have added around EUR 0.05–0.10/kg over the last month, reflecting tighter nearby availability in Europe and robust shipment interest. By contrast, official FOB Malatya and Ankara offers in Türkiye have been largely unchanged in recent weeks, even as first‑half 2026 export performance remains solid and domestic fresh apricot prices show substantial year‑on‑year gains. With clear, hot weather forecast for Malatya over the next three days and no immediate crop threat, near‑term pricing is being driven more by export flows and currency than by production risk.

Prices

EU FCA prices for Turkish dried apricots in the Netherlands are modestly firmer week‑on‑week and clearly above late‑June levels. Representative sulphured sizes ex‑warehouse Dordrecht are indicated around EUR 5.80–6.85/kg FCA for sizes 8–0, with most sizes up roughly EUR 0.20–0.30/kg since mid‑June, while diced/cubes are near EUR 3.60/kg FCA, also slightly higher.

FOB offers ex‑Malatya and Ankara for both sulphured and unsulphured whole fruit are assessed broadly flat in EUR terms over the last three weeks, despite strong interest from Europe and growing demand in Asian and Middle Eastern markets. Recent market commentary highlights that exporters are defending current FOB levels while allowing some firmness to develop at downstream EU warehouses as nearby stocks tighten and freight and financing costs remain elevated.

Supply & Demand

Malatya, which accounts for the bulk of Türkiye’s dried apricot production, is entering the core of the drying season with generally favourable 2026 crop prospects after a largely frost‑free bloom and only localised issues from earlier rainfall and hail. While some industry sources had signalled uneven fruit set in parts of the province, there is no indication of a major supply shortfall at national level, and Turkey remains by far the dominant global exporter, with dried apricot export volumes above 70,000 tonnes in recent seasons.

Export demand is currently the key driver. Recent data point to strong Turkish apricot exports in the first half of 2026, with Europe still the main destination and additional growth into Asia and the Middle East. At the same time, domestic prices for apricot products in Türkiye are reported significantly higher year‑on‑year, reflecting both underlying food inflation and steady overseas buying. These factors help explain why FOB quotes are being held steady while EU FCA levels edge higher as nearby European stocks are drawn down.

Weather & Crop Outlook (TR – Malatya)

The short‑term weather pattern over Malatya is supportive for drying activity. For July 18–20, forecasts call for clear to mostly sunny conditions with daytime highs around 34–36°C and overnight lows near 19–21°C, with no rain expected. This warm, dry spell should promote efficient sun‑drying and reduce immediate quality and mould risks in the orchards and drying yards.

Given the absence of frost risk at this late stage and no imminent heavy rainfall events, near‑term production risk for the 2026 dried apricot crop appears low. As a result, market attention is shifting away from weather and towards the pace of export sales, currency movements and the timing of formal new‑crop price declarations later in the summer, rather than any acute supply threat in the coming days.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

Fundamentally, the market is balancing expectations for a decent 2026 crop against the fact that global dried apricot supply is not burdensomely high and carry‑over stocks are reported minimal. Industry reports emphasise that there is effectively no significant leftover inventory in Türkiye or major consuming regions, which limits downside potential even if the new crop performs well. In addition, Turkey’s proven role as the price‑setting exporter, with unit export values around USD 5.30/kg in recent years, underpins current EUR‑denominated quotations.

Macro‑economic and cost‑side pressures also support prices. Studies on the Turkish dried apricot sector highlight that agricultural input costs, domestic inflation and export volumes are among the most important determinants of producer and export prices. With Türkiye still experiencing elevated input costs and robust export flows, sellers have little incentive to discount aggressively, especially on higher‑quality and organic unsulphured lots, which continue to command a clear premium over conventional sulphured grades.

Trading Outlook (Next 3–5 Days)

• Buyers (importers / packers): Consider covering near‑term needs for key sizes (3–5) at current FCA EU levels, as firm export demand and thin carry‑over make meaningful downside in the next few days unlikely. Delay larger forward purchases until there is more clarity on new‑crop FOB price ideas later in the season.
• Sellers (exporters / processors in TR): Maintain current EUR‑denominated FOB offers; benign weather and strong shipment interest justify defending existing levels while selectively pushing small increases on tight sizes or premium unsulphured and organic grades.
• Traders / stock‑holders in EU: With FCA prices already edging higher, short‑term strategy favours holding rather than aggressively liquidating stocks, particularly in popular retail sizes, while monitoring export pace and EUR/TRY moves for signals of further firmness.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (TR‑linked)

• Malatya & Ankara FOB dried apricots (whole, standard grades): Stable in EUR over the next three days; no weather or policy shock visible that would force immediate repricing.
• EU (NL) FCA Turkish dried apricots, whole: Mildly firmer bias, especially on mid‑sizes (3–5), as export demand stays strong and nearby stocks remain tight.
• EU (NL) FCA Turkish dried apricot cubes/diced: Slight upward tendency, but with less tightness than whole fruit; prices likely to track overall dried fruit complex and freight costs rather than jump sharply in the next few days.