The estimate for the wheat harvest in Ukraine is approximately 21 million tons.Approximately 5 million tons of this is barley and 4 million tons is rapeseed.This exceeds the average of the last decade.
This year, the weather conditions led to fast ripening of all crops. Respectively, the harvest started two or three weeks earlier than the statistical average. Actually, Ukraine has three main winter crops – winter wheat, barley and rapeseed. There is still winter rye, but its areas are much smaller. Despite the fact that the harvest begins much earlier, it did not have any negative critical consequences or impact on the final yield and gross harvest.
In total, Ukraine needs about 6 million tons of wheat for domestic consumption. The rest of the wheat will be exported. Regardless of what the final harvest will be, whether 21 million tons or 22.5 million tons, it will not affect domestic consumption. Internal consumption will be 100% guaranteed and provided. Final production will affect export volumes. If more crops are harvested, there will be more exports. Therefore, the final export figure will depend on the final gross production of all crops, including wheat.
During the week, wheat purchasing prices in big ports continued to fall and lost another $5-8/t. Milling wheat reached the level of 200-205 USD/t and feed wheat – 185-190 USD/t CPT Black Sea ports. Traders even have to stop purchases sometimes, pending stabilization of prices on the stock exchanges.