The European banana market saw a marked weakening in wholesale prices in week 32, reflecting diverse adjustments across major importing countries. Notably, Latvia experienced the sharpest drop, with average wholesale prices plunging from €85/100 kg in week 31 to €76/100 kg in week 32. Similar trends played out in Croatia and the Netherlands, with notable reductions. While some markets—like Slovakia and Hungary—recorded less substantial decreases, the momentum points to broad-based pressure on banana prices across the continent. This decline reflects a complex interplay of steady shipment arrivals, demand fluctuations as the summer holiday season winds down, and ongoing logistical adjustments.
Despite seasonal support from retail promotions and stable supply from producer countries, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and shifts in consumer spending are tempering demand, contributing to recent softness in prices. Monitoring weather developments in key exporting nations and global logistics trends will be crucial for assessing future market dynamics.
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Banana dried chips
Chips, whole
FOB 3.53 €/kg
(from VN)
Banana dried chips
Chips, whole
FCA 2.79 €/kg
(from NL)
Banana dried chips
Chips, broken
FCA 1.77 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices
| Country | Week 31 Price (€/100 kg) | Week 32 Price (€/100 kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia | 85 | 76 | -10.6 | Bearish |
| Croatia | 120 | 108 | -10.0 | Bearish |
| Netherlands | 119 | 109 | -8.4 | Bearish |
| Slovakia | 149 | 146 | -2.0 | Mildly Bearish |
| Hungary | 136 | 135 | -0.7 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply: Steady shipments from top exporters such as Ecuador and the Philippines. No major shipment disruptions reported, though some European ports note minor congestion.
- Demand: Summer holiday season in Europe contributes to varied consumer activity. Retail promotions continue, but overall demand has softened, coinciding with the return to work/school patterns in late August.
- Inventories: Wholesale market inventories stable to slightly elevated, signaling balanced but cautious replenishment by buyers.
📊 Fundamentals
- Recent Drivers: Macroeconomic headwinds affecting discretionary spending, coupled with mild weather in Europe lowering consumption of bananas as a snack fruit.
- Speculative Positioning: No major speculative overstretch reported; market sentiment reflective of real supply and demand trends.
- Historical Comparison: Week 32’s declines echo similar price drops observed in the same period last year, but are more pronounced in 2025 amid persistent inflationary pressures and changing consumer habits.
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (€/kg) | Previous Price (€/kg) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banana dried chips (Whole, non-organic) | VN | Hanoi, VN | FOB | 3.53 | 3.53 | 2025-08-14 |
| Banana dried chips (Whole, organic) | PH | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 2.79 | 2.82 | 2025-08-14 |
| Banana dried chips (Broken, non-organic) | PH | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 1.77 | 1.80 | 2025-08-14 |
| Banana dried chips (Whole, non-organic) | PH | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 2.30 | 2.34 | 2025-08-14 |
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Ecuador: El Niño disruptions have faded, with growing regions seeing mostly favorable conditions, supporting steady yields.
- Philippines: Typhoon activity subdued during the current period; ample rainfall but no major damage recorded. Crop prospects positive.
- Central America: No exceptional drought or storm issues reported. Steady to slightly above-average growing conditions.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
- Top Exporters: Ecuador remains global leader, followed by the Philippines and Costa Rica. Year-to-date export figures are stable with marginal gains for Ecuador.
- Top Importers: EU-27 and Russia keep their dominant position; recent data points to flat-to-lower EU imports versus prior year, likely due to price sensitivity and inflation.
- Inventory Levels: Major European ports/warehouses report normal to slightly elevated stocks for August, suggesting no immediate supply squeeze.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Further short-term price softness possible as post-summer demand trails off and inventory levels are healthy.
- Watch for renewed buyer interest ahead of September, as school year restarts and retail campaigns launch.
- Weather risks remain moderate, but logistical bottlenecks or new storms could spark volatility.
- Sellers: Prioritize quick movement of current inventory; buyers: consider phased purchases to average out potential further declines.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Country | Aug 15 (€/100 kg) | Aug 16 (€/100 kg) | Aug 17 (€/100 kg) | Forecast Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia | 75 | 75 | 76 | Stable to Mild Recovery |
| Croatia | 107 | 107 | 108 | Stable |
| Netherlands | 108 | 108 | 109 | Stable |
| Slovakia | 146 | 146 | 146 | Steady |
| Hungary | 135 | 135 | 135 | Steady |
