Europe’s Weather Shock Drives the Corn Market Toward Record Imports and Volatility

The European corn market is currently grappling with adverse weather conditions that threaten regional production and shift the landscape of global maize trade. Prolonged and intense heatwaves in major producing nations such as France, Spain, and Bulgaria have sharply reduced yield prospects, with quality dropping and supply deficits looming. According to FranceAgriMer, just 62% of French corn is now rated in good or excellent condition—significantly below last year’s levels. In Spain and southern France, temperatures soaring up to 9°C above average have severely damaged crops, while Bulgaria faces near-historic lows in corn output amid persistent drought.

This decline in domestic output comes as the International Grains Council (IGC) projects the EU will import 21 million tons of maize in 2025-26, consolidating its role as the world’s second-largest buyer after China. With Brazilian and U.S. corn expected to hit record harvests and remaining competitively priced, EU importers are ramping up purchases to stabilize feed grain supplies. Meanwhile, market sentiment is diverging: while U.S. CBOT corn prices slumped to a yearly low on hopes of a bumper harvest, Paris futures rallied on fears of mounting deficits, briefly hitting their highest level in over a week.

Uncertainty lingers on the supply front as farmers in key European regions await cooler, wetter weather that could salvage some late-maturing crops. However, ongoing dryness in the U.K., Germany, Romania, Bulgaria, and Spain points to continued risks. Traders and millers must now navigate a new era of volatility, where Europe’s dependence on imports is set to intensify as local yields falter under climatic stress.

📈 Prices and Market Summary

Contract	Location/Exchange	Latest Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Corn (Feed grade, 14.5% max)	CBOT	USD 4.13/bushel*	-2.1%	Bearish (U.S. record crop)
Corn (Feed grade, 14.5% max)	Euronext (Paris)	EUR 224.25/ton*	+0.8%	Firm (EU crop stress)
Corn (yellow, FR, FOB)	Paris FOB	EUR 0.24/kg	-4.0% (from EUR 0.25/kg)	Softening
Corn (yellow feed, UA, FCA)	Odesa, FCA	EUR 0.26/kg	—	Stable
Popcorn (BR, FCA)	Dordrecht, NL, FCA	EUR 0.75/kg	—	Neutral
Popcorn (AR, FOB)	Buenos Aires, FOB	EUR 0.82/kg	—	Stable
Corn (starch, IN, organic)	New Delhi, FOB	EUR 1.92/kg	-1.0% (from EUR 1.94/kg)	Softening

_{*Latest exchange prices as of August 22, 2025. Exchange rates may affect local comparisons.}

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Weather Impact: EU crop prospects sharply deteriorating, especially in France, Spain, and Bulgaria due to extreme heat and drought.
• Imports: IGC foresees EU maize imports rising to 21 million tons in 2025-26—the highest in years.
• Global Availability: Record or near-record harvests expected in Brazil and the U.S. keep global prices competitive and supplies ample.
• Chinese Demand: China is importing less, freeing up global export capacity now snapped up by Europe.
• Speculative Flows: Funds reducing long CBOT corn positions in response to benign U.S. weather and bumper crop forecasts.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks & Trade

Country	2025 Production* (Mt)	2025-26 Stocks (Mt)	Import/Export (Mt)
USA	386	56	Export: 62
Brazil	129	16	Export: 52
EU	59	5	Import: 21
China	280	209	Import: 19
Ukraine	32	4	Export: 24
Argentina	48	4	Export: 35

_{*Production and trade forecasts: IGC/USDA, August 2025}

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• France/Spain/Bulgaria: Severe heat waves, up to 9°C above normal in July/August, weaken yields. Relief possible if late-August rains materialize.
• Germany/UK: Dryness remains a concern, risking further reductions in crop ratings.
• U.S. Midwest: Mixed weather, but overall conducive for large harvest; August rains boosting late corn.
• Brazil: Seasonally dry; safrinha harvest complete and robust.

Overall, European yields will likely be down, with France and Spain most at risk of subpar quality and volumes. Some partial crop stabilization possible if rain arrives in the next two weeks, but deficits will persist.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Sellers: Consider forward selling remaining old-crop corn amid robust import demand and local supply uncertainty.
• 🛡️ Buyers: Secure import positions early—ample U.S. and Brazilian supply is mitigating price spikes, but basis and freight costs could rise.
• 🔄 Merchants: Monitor Euronext and FOB physical markets for basis volatility as condition ratings worsen in Europe, and short-term rallies on adverse weather updates.
• ⏳ Speculators: Watch for further divergence between U.S. and EU prices; spreads may widen if weather remains adverse in Europe.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Current Price	1-Day	3-Day	Trend
CBOT (U.S.)	USD 4.13/bu	↓	↓	Bearish
Euronext (Paris)	EUR 224.25/ton	→	↑	Stable to Slightly Bullish
Odesa (UA, FCA)	EUR 0.26/kg	→	→	Stable
Paris (FR, FOB)	EUR 0.24/kg	→	↑	Watch for volatility