The global Fenugreek market is facing a notable deceleration, marking a sharp contrast to the robust demand and higher price levels of the previous year. Despite favorable weather conditions and a high-quality harvest, the market has entered a bearish phase characterized by surplus stocks and tepid buying interest—both domestically and in the export sector. New crop arrivals have been consistently entering key markets such as Bikaner, Gwalior, and New Delhi for the past three months. However, prices for fenugreek seeds have steadily eroded, as high carryover stocks and lackluster demand keep upward momentum firmly in check.
Even the prime pickle processing season has done little to ignite a rally, underlining the gravity of demand-side challenges. The commodity, widely grown across Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat, remains affected by increased arrivals and a gradual buildup of unsold inventory. Traders report a notable 25% carryover from last season as of May, and export demand for the new harvest remains subdued. Consequently, the near-term outlook sees little room for price recovery barring a sudden reversal in either domestic or international demand.
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FOB 0.71 €/kg
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📈 Fenugreek Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Location | Grade/Type | Delivery Terms | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenugreek seeds | New Delhi (IN) | Organic | FOB | 1.21 | 1.21 | 2025-06-21 | Stable/Weak |
| Fenugreek seeds | New Delhi (IN) | Powder, Organic | FOB | 1.40 | 1.40 | 2025-06-21 | Stable/Weak |
| Fenugreek seeds (FAQ, machine clean) | New Delhi (IN) | Conventional | FOB | 0.72 | 0.73 | 2025-06-21 | Down |
| Fenugreek seeds (99%) | New Delhi (IN) | 99% Purity | FOB | 0.75 | 0.74 | 2025-06-21 | Slightly up, but overall weak |
| Fenugreek seeds | Kairo (EG) | Conventional | FOB | 0.90 | 0.88 | 2025-06-21 | Stable/Quiet |
- Delhi market: Avg quality at USD 69.88–72.29/quintal (~EUR 0.72-0.75/kg), high grade at USD 87.95–93.97/quintal.
- 3-month price movement: Down USD 4.82–6.02/quintal (~EUR 0.05-0.06/kg)
- Market sentiment: Bearish, with high supply and muted demand as of late June 2025
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Production: Consistently high across Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat; new arrivals from Jodhpur, Bikaner, Pratapgarh (Rajasthan), Javra, Mandsaur, Neemuch (MP), Ratlam, and Javra.
- Demand: Weak for both domestic use and exports. Previous year’s export rush for pickle processing is absent, even in current pickle season.
- Stocks: 25% of old stock carried over as of May, adding to oversupply pressures.
- Exports: Minimal new deals, no notable pickup in international inquiries. Export season failed to lift prices.
📊 Fundamentals & Comparative Analysis
- Harvest Quality: Good, with optimal weather reported for harvest window.
- Stock Levels: High, as supply exceeds consumption needs despite reduced carryover versus last year.
- Comparison to Last Year: Prices are down nearly 15–20% YoY (2024: up to USD 0.84/kg; 2025: ~USD 0.64–0.75/kg).
- Market Reaction: Unlike 2024, the bumper crop and subdued demand have prevented any seasonal price spikes.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Major production belts in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have seen favorable monsoon onset with above-average rainfall reported this season (source: IMD).
- No major weather threats forecast through the next 10 days; mild, supportive temperatures and steady rain expected.
- Impact: Continued favorable weather may encourage further arrivals and maintain quality, but with demand weak, this supports a bearish price outlook rather than recovery.
🌐 Global Production and Inventory Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production Estimate (tons) | Stock/Carryover (% of prod.) | Export Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 190,000 | 23–25% | >80% |
| Egypt | 22,000 | 15% | 50% |
| Others | ~30,000 | ~10% | Var. |
📌 Key Market Drivers to Watch
- Large carryover stocks are capping price upside, even with a good harvest.
- Export inquiry remains tepid; unless new bulk orders arrive, prices may slip further.
- Weather for the coming months appears favorable—no imminent risks to new crop quality.
- Speculative activity is notably absent; low volatility expected.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- *Sellers:* Avoid aggressive selling at current low levels unless storage/finance costs mount; consider gradual release to avoid further dips.
- *Exporters:* Focus on niche/high-quality markets—bulk export pressure is absent, but margins are thin.
- *Buyers:* Take advantage of weak prices, especially for quality grades; consider forward contracts for late year if demand prospects improve.
- *Speculators:* Volatility is low; momentum plays unfavorable.
- *Watch for*: Sudden export inquiries (particularly from Middle East/Europe) that could spark short-term recoveries.
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Markets)
| Market | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (IN) – Organic | 1.21 | 1.20–1.22 | Stable/Bearish |
| New Delhi (IN) – Conventional (FAQ, MC) | 0.72 | 0.71–0.73 | Bearish |
| New Delhi (IN) – 99% purity | 0.75 | 0.74–0.76 | Stable/Bearish |
| Kairo (EG) | 0.90 | 0.89–0.91 | Neutral/Quiet |
