The global fenugreek market is experiencing a notable surge in activity, with early signs that prices are preparing for a steady climb. With Diwali—a major festival—in the near horizon, both traders and consumers are witnessing a tightening of supply and a pronounced uptick in demand. Current wholesale rates hover around $56 to $62 per quintal, and premium lots are fetching between $62 and $72 in India’s key producing states of Rajasthan and Gujarat. The striking slowdown in fresh arrivals, now down to 800–1,000 sacks daily from the earlier 1,400–1,500, underscores persistent supply-side constraints.
Seasoned market observers suggest that tightening stocks in the pipeline, exacerbated by an anticipated 15–20% shortfall over the coming months, could fuel a price rally through late November—notably as retailers and wholesalers begin aggressive pre-festive stocking. Meanwhile, export demand remains robust, reaching a historic high with India’s latest shipment figures up 17% in volume and 29% in value year-on-year. Weather uncertainties and the outcome of the next sowing season add further intrigue to the market’s direction, making the coming weeks pivotal for price action and trade activity.
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Fenugreek seeds
FOB 1.19 €/kg
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Fenugreek seeds
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FOB 0.74 €/kg
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Fenugreek seeds
powder
FOB 1.39 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Origin | Purity/Type | Organic | Location | Delivery (FOB) | Price (€/kg) | Previous Price (€/kg) | Change | Update Date | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenugreek seeds | India | – | Yes | New Delhi | FOB | 1.19 | 1.18 | ▲ +0.01 | 2025-08-02 | Bullish |
| Fenugreek seeds | India | 99% | No | New Delhi | FOB | 0.74 | 0.73 | ▲ +0.01 | 2025-08-02 | Bullish |
| Fenugreek seeds (powder) | India | Powder | Yes | New Delhi | FOB | 1.39 | 1.38 | ▲ +0.01 | 2025-08-02 | Bullish |
| Fenugreek seeds (FAQ, m/clean) | India | FAQ | No | New Delhi | FOB | 0.72 | 0.71 | ▲ +0.01 | 2025-08-02 | Bullish |
| Fenugreek seeds | Egypt | – | No | Cairo | FOB | 0.95 | 0.95 | – | 2025-08-02 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Current Arrivals: Daily arrivals in India’s major markets have dropped to 800–1,000 sacks vs. 1,400–1,500 sacks previously.
- Stock Availability: Industry sources expect a 15–20% shortfall in pipeline stocks over the upcoming quarter.
- Festive Demand: Diwali stocking is driving up wholesale interest, particularly across Rajasthan and Gujarat.
- Export Performance: India exported 94,516 MT by May 2025 (record high), valued at $8.37 mn, up 17% in volume and 29% in value YoY.
📊 Fundamental Landscape
- Crop Depletion: Last season’s stock rapidly depleting due to reduced new arrivals.
- Export Markets: Indian fenugreek maintains strong global demand, with Egypt also a notable supplier.
- Inventory Conditions: Pipeline stocks across trade circuits remain tight, intensifying price pressures.
- Price Action: Wholesale prices $56–$62/qtl (average), $62–$72/qtl (premium).
⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Development
- India (Rajasthan, Gujarat): Latest weather models indicate above-average monsoon rainfall, but intermittent dry spells could affect upcoming sowing if they persist into September. Farmers are closely watching for any late-stage monsoon shortfalls, which could influence planted acreage in October.
- Exporters (Egypt): Moderate conditions prevail; however, irrigation water availability is a minor concern for expanding area this season.
🌎 Global Production & Inventory Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (est. MT) | 2025 Export (MT, by May) | Inventory Situation |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~120,000 | 94,516 | Tight, declining rapidly |
| Egypt | ~25,000 | n/a | Stable |
| Other (Global) | ~18,000 | n/a | Limited |
📝 Key Drivers & Market Factors
- Anticipated 15–20% supply shortfall in Indian wholesale markets.
- Diwali stocking likely to peak by late September–October.
- Continued robust export demand from major importing countries.
- Weather conditions for next sowing season remain a wild card.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For Buyers: Secure forward contracts for high quality and organic lots as stocks are expected to tighten further.
- For Sellers: Hold back substantial volumes of premium stock; offer incrementally as festive demand ramps up.
- For Exporters: Leverage robust demand but remain agile with logistics due to possible supply-chain bottlenecks in Q4.
- All Market Participants: Closely monitor weather forecasts and Diwali stocking trends into October.
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (FOB, New Delhi)
| Date | Organic Fenugreek Seeds (€/kg) | 99% Conventional (€/kg) | Powder (€/kg) | FAQ, m/clean (€/kg) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-03 | 1.20 | 0.75 | 1.40 | 0.73 | Bullish |
| 2025-08-04 | 1.21 | 0.76 | 1.41 | 0.74 | Bullish |
| 2025-08-05 | 1.21 | 0.76 | 1.42 | 0.74 | Bullish |