Figs Market Outlook: Drought Uncertainty and Stable Prices Define New Season
The global figs market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as the new season unfolds. Fresh figs have just begun to reach markets, while the dried fig season is yet to commence. This year, drought conditions are taking centre stage, with fig growers in Turkey—the world’s largest producer and exporter—preparing to irrigate their orchards earlier than usual.
The situation is similarly precarious for newly planted saplings, increasing the unpredictability of both yields and quality. Exporters are facing a challenging environment: while the Middle Eastern market has provided some support, hopes are pinned on regaining momentum in Europe. However, with water shortages and shifting weather patterns, neither farmers nor exporters can confidently forecast production volumes or price trajectories for the coming months. Market participants are advised to closely monitor weather developments and export trends, as the balance between supply risks and demand opportunities remains finely poised.
📈 Prices
| Origin | Type | Location | Grade | Price (USD/kg, FOB) | Previous Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | Dried Figs, Natural | Malatya | No: 1 | 9.20 | 9.20 | 0% | Stable |
| Turkey | Dried Figs, Natural | Malatya | No: 2 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 0% | Stable |
| Turkey | Dried Figs, Lerida | Malatya | No: 1 | 9.50 | 9.50 | 0% | Stable |
| Iran | Dried Figs, Grade AAA | Tehran | AAA | 5.13 | 5.05 | +1.6% | Firm |
| Iran | Dried Figs, Grade B | Tehran | B | 2.67 | 2.56 | +4.3% | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Turkey is the main supplier of dried figs globally. Early irrigation due to drought is raising production costs and yield uncertainty.
- Iran: Stable supply with slight price increases, especially in higher grades, reflecting firm demand.
- Export Markets: Middle Eastern demand has remained steady, but European buyers are cautious, awaiting clearer signals on quality and volume.
- Fresh Figs: Just entering markets; volumes are still low.
📊 Fundamentals
- Weather: Drought conditions in Turkey are the primary risk factor. Farmers are starting irrigation earlier, impacting costs and possibly fruit quality.
- Inventories: End-of-season stocks are low, especially in Turkey, as last season’s exports to the Middle East absorbed much of the available supply.
- Speculative Positioning: Limited activity; most traders are in a wait-and-see mode until crop outlooks become clearer.
- Export Focus: Turkish exporters are targeting a recovery in the European market, but face uncertainty due to weather and market conditions.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- Turkey (Aydın, Malatya, İzmir): Forecasts indicate continued dry and hot weather, with below-average rainfall expected over the next two weeks. Early irrigation is underway, but water availability remains a concern.
- Iran (Fars, Tehran): Weather conditions are more favourable, with moderate temperatures and occasional rainfall supporting fig development.
- Impact: Turkish yields are at elevated risk if drought persists. Quality issues such as smaller fruit size and lower sugar content may arise.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Est. Production (kt) | 2023/24 Production (kt) | 2024/25 Est. Exports (kt) | 2024/25 Stocks (kt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 290 | 305 | 235 | 20 |
| Iran | 95 | 92 | 40 | 8 |
| Egypt | 80 | 78 | 10 | 5 |
| Morocco | 65 | 63 | 8 | 4 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor Turkish weather closely; further drought could tighten supply and lift prices.
- Exporters should prioritise Middle Eastern markets while awaiting clarity on European demand recovery.
- Buyers may consider gradual stock-building, especially of Iranian grades, which remain competitively priced.
- Expect stable prices in the short term, but increased volatility as the harvest approaches and weather risks materialise.
- Fresh fig market to remain thin until peak harvest; dried fig prices could firm if Turkish yields disappoint.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Origin | Type | Current Price (USD/kg, FOB) | 3-Day Forecast | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | Dried Figs, Natural No.1 | 9.20 | 9.20 – 9.30 | Stable to Slightly Up |
| Iran | Dried Figs, Grade AAA | 5.13 | 5.10 – 5.20 | Stable |
| Turkey | Dried Figs, Lerida No.1 | 9.50 | 9.50 – 9.60 | Stable |