Firm Walnut Market in New Delhi as Limited Supply Supports Prices

Walnut prices in New Delhi are holding firm and are likely to remain supported in the short term on steady domestic demand and carefully held stocks. With no sign yet of a sharp rebound in physical arrivals, the market bias stays mildly bullish. In the Indian spot and nearby export market, regular offtake from dry fruit traders, retailers and processors is meeting limited availability. Stockists are reluctant sellers at current levels, which underpins prices despite broader softness or sideways moves in some other nut and agri markets. Against this backdrop, international kernel offers from China, the US and India remain broadly stable, keeping import-parity levels in check but not yet sufficient to trigger a meaningful correction in New Delhi.

Prices & Differentials

In New Delhi, walnut prices are quoted around USD 9.45–9.55 per kg, equivalent to roughly EUR 8.70–8.80 per kg using a working rate of 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR. The tone is described as firm, with buyers finding little room to negotiate lower.

Export-oriented kernel offers for key origins remain flat compared with late May. Chinese walnut kernels (FOB Dalian) have shown no significant change over the last three weeks, indicating a broadly steady global reference environment.

Supply & Demand Drivers

Domestic Indian demand from dry fruit traders, retailers and processors is reported as regular rather than exuberant, but crucially it is consistent enough to absorb the limited volumes on offer. This steady pull keeps replacement interest alive at current price levels.

On the supply side, stockists are holding material carefully. With inventories not being aggressively released, any small pickup in festival or confectionery demand could translate quickly into localized tightness. Broader dry fruit markets in Delhi have recently experienced strong price increases on supply disruptions, underlining the sensitivity of the segment to logistics and geopolitical issues.

Fundamentals & External Context

Recent industry data from California, the world’s key export origin for walnuts, show standing acreage that remains substantial but in a phase of structural adjustment, with some older or less productive orchards being removed. While this does not yet point to an acute shortage, it reduces the scope for large surplus-driven price pressure in the medium term.

Weather-wise, California’s 2025/26 water year to early June shows precipitation around or slightly below average in some basins, suggesting neither a severe drought nor clear over-supply signal at this stage. The broader nut complex (e.g. cashews, almonds) is showing firm to steady prices on relatively resilient demand, which supports the notion of a floor under premium nut prices, including walnuts, as long as consumer spending holds.

Short-Term Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)

Given the current balance in New Delhi, walnut prices are expected to remain firm as long as fresh supply does not increase sharply. Any improvement in arrivals—either from domestic stocks or new import flows—would be needed to ease the tightness and cap further upside.

In the absence of such a supply response, the combination of cautious sellers and regular end-use demand suggests a sideways-to-slightly-upward price trajectory into late June. Volatility could increase if freight or currency moves alter import economics, but there is no clear sign yet of imminent downside in local walnut quotations.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers (traders, retailers, processors): Consider covering near-term needs promptly rather than waiting for discounts, as current indications in New Delhi are already firm and a sharp supply-led correction looks unlikely in the immediate term.
• Stockists: With the market supported by limited availability, a measured selling strategy appears justified. Rapid destocking is not recommended unless there is clear evidence of larger arrivals or demand erosion.
• Importers: Monitor kernel offers from China and the US closely; with FOB prices and export-price indices stable, any softening in freight or FX could open a window to lock in competitive forward cargoes without undermining current domestic values.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• New Delhi (in-shell / kernels, spot, EUR basis): Bias firm; prices likely to hold around current EUR 8.70–8.80/kg equivalent, with a slight upside risk if sellers remain reluctant.
• Dalian FOB kernels (EUR basis): Sideways; no strong catalyst for immediate moves, suggesting stable differentials to Indian wholesale levels.
• European hubs (e.g. London organic kernels, EUR basis): Stable; organic premium persists, with limited downside expected in the very short term given balanced stocks and niche demand.