The flax market is entering a decisive phase as Ukrainian supplies are practically exhausted. Farmers in Ukraine, a pivotal exporter, are offloading their final remnants, but the remaining stocks are marred by quality concerns. As a result, purchase prices have become highly variable, though the ceiling typically does not exceed 600 euros per ton—yet this remains well above the average price levels seen last year. Buyers and processors are now in waiting mode, eyeing the upcoming harvest projected for August/September.
This end-of-season tightness is already reflected in spot prices, buoyed further by anxieties over quality and low inventories in the key Black Sea region. Meanwhile, international prices for high-purity and organic flax remain robust, especially from Kazakhstan and Canada, providing a clear contrast to last year’s more subdued market. With global demand still steady and weather patterns in major origins turning volatile, participants should prepare for price volatility in the immediate term and monitor forward supply risks ahead of a critical harvest period.
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Flax seeds brown
brown
98%
FCA 0.66 €/kg
(from UA)
Flax seeds brown
brown
98%
FCA 0.66 €/kg
(from UA)
Flax seeds brown
brown
99,95%
FCA 0.92 €/kg
(from PL)
📈 Prices & Market Levels
| Origin | Type/Purity | Organic | Location | Delivery | Latest Price (€/kg) | W/W Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Brown/98% | No | Odesa | FCA | 0.66 | 0% | Stable |
| Ukraine | Brown/98% | No | Kyiv | FCA | 0.66 | 0% | Stable |
| Ukraine-PL | Brown/99.95% | No | Kiełczygłów | FCA | 0.92 | +16.5% | Firm |
| Germany (UA) | Brown/99.95% | No | Berlin | FCA | 0.87 | +10.1% | Firm |
| Kazakhstan | Brown/97% | Yes | Astana | FOB | 1.80 | -1.1% | Soft |
| Canada | Brown/97% | Yes | Ottawa | FOB | 1.43 | -1.4% | Mildly Weak |
| India | Brown/99.9% | No | New Delhi | FOB | 0.86 | 0% | Stable |
| Kazakhstan-PL | Yellow/99.95% | No | Kiełczygłów | FCA | 1.65 | +6.5% | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Ukrainian supply: Nearly exhausted; farmers liquidating poor-quality stock. The majority of buyers are delaying new purchases until next harvest.
- Global demand: Steady, especially for high-purity and organic flax. Europe remains a leading import destination.
- Price differential: High-quality/organic flax (KZ, CA) trades at a premium vs. Ukrainian/Bulk supplies.
- Speculative position: Market shows little speculative buildup; most traders on sidelines until a clearer outlook for next crop.
- Stocks: End-of-season inventories are low, particularly in Black Sea exporters.
📊 Fundamentals & Data Comparison
- Last year’s report showed end-June Ukraine prices below 0.50 €/kg, over 30% below current levels.
- The current European spot market sees consistent premiums for higher purity, traceable or organic origins.
- Major exporting countries: Kazakhstan leads in organic, Canada is strong in non-GMO/organic, and Ukraine is key for conventional.
☁️ Weather & Harvest Outlook
- Ukraine: Recent droughts and localised storms have affected late crop quality, but harvest potential for the new crop (Aug/Sep) appears strong if near-term rainfall materialises.
- Kazakhstan: Favourable early planting weather; normal temps expected next 2 weeks. Well-timed rainfall in July will be crucial.
- Canada: Near-term outlook shows cooler-than-average temps with isolated showers, beneficial for flowering, but continued monitoring for late hail or excessive rain is needed.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2023/24 Est. Prod. (k tons) | Stock Level / Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan | 640 | Normal, up <1% y/y |
| Canada | 410 | Low, down 6% y/y |
| Ukraine | 62 | Near-empty, -45% y/y |
| Russia | ~69 | Low, stable |
| China | 110 | Barely sufficient, steady |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Secure needed volumes now if quality flax is essential; the new Ukrainian crop may offer improved availability (August/September) at more favourable prices.
- Sellers: Capitalise on strong spot markets, but prepare for downward correction once new crop pressure builds.
- Monitor weather developments in the Black Sea and Kazakhstan—early stress could sharply affect availability and price.
- Expect continued volatility in premiums for high-purity/organic flax until harvest clarity emerges.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Current Price (€/kg) | Forecast (€/kg) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odesa (UA, 98%) | 0.66 | 0.66—0.68 | Stable / Slightly Firm |
| Kiełczygłów (PL, 99.95%) | 0.92 | 0.92—0.95 | Firm |
| Astana (KZ, 97% organic) | 1.80 | 1.78—1.80 | Slightly Softer |