The flax market is undergoing noticeable shifts in 2025, propelled largely by vigorous demand from China and evolving dynamics among leading suppliers. From January to April 2025, Chinese imports of flax seeds from Russia soared by 46% year-on-year to 391,000 tons, with the value climbing 59% to $197 million. This impressive uptick positions Russia as China’s key flax supplier—dwarfing imports from Kazakhstan, Canada, and the USA. Notably, for the first four months of 2025, flax imports from Kazakhstan reached 107,000 tons ($54 million), while Canada and the USA supplied much smaller volumes. Across all oil crops, China brought in about 693,000 tons over this period, highlighting flax’s strategic prominence in their vegetable oil and food industry supply chains.
The price landscape reflects this robust demand and shifting trade flows, with market offers revealing divergent trends: Canadian-origin flax trades at a premium versus Kazakh, while Indian and Ukrainian seeds offer budget-friendly alternatives. Weather conditions across Eurasia and the Canadian prairies are currently mixed—potentially impacting yield forecasts and price volatility for the remainder of 2025. For market participants, the surging demand from China is likely to support firm prices, yet cautious attention to weather and global supply reactions is warranted.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Flax seeds brown
brown
97%
FOB 1.82 €/kg
(from KZ)
Flax seeds brown
brown
97%
FOB 1.45 €/kg
(from CA)
Flax seeds brown
brown
99,9%
FOB 0.86 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Current Market Snapshot
| Product | Origin | Location | Purity | Organic | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/t) | Weekly Change | Price Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flax seeds brown | KZ | Astana, KZ | 97% | Yes | FOB | 1.82 | +0.02 | Offer |
| Flax seeds brown | CA | Ottawa, CA | 97% | Yes | FOB | 1.45 | +0.02 | Offer |
| Flax seeds brown | IN | New Delhi, IN | 99.9% | No | FOB | 0.86 | 0.00 | Offer |
| Flax seeds yellow | KZ | Kiełczygłow, PL | 99.95% | No | FCA | 1.58 | -0.07 | Offer |
| Flax seeds brown | UA | Kiełczygłow, PL | 99.95% | No | FCA | 0.85 | -0.07 | Offer |
| Flax seeds brown | UA | Odesa, UA | 98% | No | FCA | 0.66 | 0.00 | Offer |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Chinese Appetite Drives Market
- Chinese Imports Surge: Russia’s flax exports to China (Jan-Apr 2025) up 46% in volume to 391,000 tons compared to previous year; imports from Kazakhstan and Canada much lower but significant.
- Global Trade Volumes: China imported nearly 693,000 tons of oil crops in total in early 2025, showing continued strong demand for plant-based oils and feedstock.
- Key Exporters: Russia (391k tons), Kazakhstan (107k), Canada (11k), USA (0.5k).
- Exporter Competition: Canada maintains premium pricing; Kazakhstan is competitive due to strong production and logistical advantages into China.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Supply Chain Shifts: Russian and Kazakh supplies are critical to meeting Chinese demand; Canadian flax struggles with export logistics and price competitiveness.
- Price Trends: Premiums persist for organic, high-purity flax; Indian and Ukrainian seeds see steady or slightly declining prices, reflecting ample supply.
- Speculative Positioning: Fund activity in flax and oilseed markets is moderate, with focus on weather, shipment flows, and end-user demand in Asia.
- Currency and Freight: Shifting freight rates and ruble/kazakhstani tenge fluctuations slightly affect FOB offers to Asia.
🌦️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions
- Russia & Kazakhstan: Central Asian growing regions face mixed conditions—temperatures are above seasonal norms, but patchy rainfall may reduce yield potential in marginal areas.
- Canada: Prairies are experiencing early heatwaves and scattered drought zones—risk for lower yields if timely rains do not arrive over the next weeks.
- India: Weather stable with good moisture; no major disruptions expected for flax planting/harvest cycle.
Potential Market Impact: Any further shortfalls in Canadian or Kazakh production could tighten exportable surpluses and lift prices in Q3-Q4 2025, given China’s buying pace.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024 Prod. (est, 000 t) | 2024/25 Stocks (000 t) | Major Exports (Jan-Apr 2025, 000 t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | ~900 | High | 391 (to CN) |
| Kazakhstan | ~250 | Moderate | 107 (to CN) |
| Canada | ~450 | Low/Mod | 11 (to CN) |
| Ukraine | ~160 | Stable | – |
| India | ~80 | Stable | – |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For exporters: Russian and Kazakh origins remain favored for Chinese buyers—secure freight availability and monitor harvest weather for forward sales.
- For importers: Early cover recommended as Chinese demand sustains price floors; consider alternative origins (Ukraine, India) for cost savings.
- For traders: Watch for volatility from Canadian weather and potential logistical disruptions; hedge positions ahead of July/August weather developments.
- For processors/end users: Lock in contracts where possible to mitigate upward price risk through autumn, especially if El Niño elevates supply uncertainty.
📉 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges/Markets)
| Market/Origin | Current Price (EUR/t) | Forecast Range (EUR/t) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan (FOB) | 1.82 | 1.80 – 1.85 | Stable-Bullish |
| Canada (FOB) | 1.45 | 1.43 – 1.48 | Bullish |
| India (FOB) | 0.86 | 0.85 – 0.88 | Stable |
| Ukraine (FCA PL/DE) | 0.85-0.92 | 0.85 – 0.95 | Sideways |
China’s robust demand offers support, but keep a close eye on weather risks and shifting trade flows for price direction over the next week.
