The flax seed market has faced notable pressure in recent weeks, with Kazakhstan—the leading supplier—experiencing a third consecutive weekly decline in prices. The current dynamic underscores the interplay between sluggish new-crop harvesting, logistical bottlenecks, and lackluster demand from both domestic processors and international buyers. As of September 16, Kazakh flax seed prices averaged USD 494.50 per ton, marking a week-on-week decline and extending a trend that began mid-August, when values hovered around USD 532 per ton. Export quotations have likewise softened, with October deliveries to Europe under CIF ARAG terms slipping to USD 690 per ton.
Meanwhile, market sources point to steady Chinese spot prices and highly quality-sensitive European purchasing, reflecting a market in wait-and-see mode ahead of full-scale harvest progress. With inventories potentially tight and buyers cautious, sentiment remains bearish in the near term. Weather issues slowing the harvest in Kazakhstan and Siberia are compounding anxieties, while product quality—especially purity, oil content, and the absence of pesticide residues—plays an increasing role in export competitiveness. Market participants expect pressure to persist until volume picks up and buyers return in greater force. Price movements in Poland, Germany, and Ukraine also reflect this cautious environment, while organic Canadian and Kazakh seeds fetch significant premiums. The coming weeks will be pivotal for both the direction of physical prices and trading strategies as harvest, weather, and international demand all converge.
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FCA 0.65 €/kg
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📈 Flax Seed Prices and Market Sentiment
| Origin | Location | Purity | Organic | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/t) | Previous Price (EUR/t) | Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UA | PL (Kiełczygłów) | 99.95% | No | FCA | 0.79/kg | 0.77/kg | 2025-09-16 | Bullish |
| UA | DE (Berlin) | 99.95% | No | FCA | 0.79/kg | 0.77/kg | 2025-09-16 | Bullish |
| UA | UA (Odesa) | 98% | No | FCA | 0.65/kg | 0.67/kg | 2025-09-12 | Bearish |
| UA | UA (Kyiv) | 98% | No | FCA | 0.65/kg | 0.67/kg | 2025-09-12 | Bearish |
| KZ | KZ (Astana) | 97% | Yes | FOB | 1.82/kg | 1.82/kg | 2025-09-06 | Stable |
| CA | CA (Ottawa) | 97% | Yes | FOB | 1.45/kg | 1.45/kg | 2025-09-06 | Stable |
| IN | IN (New Delhi) | 99.9% | No | FOB | 0.89/kg | 0.88/kg | 2025-09-06 | Bullish |
| KZ | PL (Kiełczygłow) | 99.95% (yellow) | No | FCA | 1.29/kg | 1.35/kg | 2025-09-01 | Bearish |
| KZ | PL (Kiełczygłow) | 99.95% | No | FCA | 0.72/kg | 0.73/kg | 2025-09-01 | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Kazakhstan: Harvest delays due to adverse weather, slow fieldwork, and cautious buyers have trimmed available supply.
- Russia/Siberia: Reports mirror Kazakh trends with slow new-crop arrivals.
- Europe: Demand subdued as buyers seek high quality and hold back on large-volume purchases. CIF ARAG prices for October fell USD 15 to USD 690/t. Polish prices in the 97% purity segment remain steady at USD 638/t under DAP Poland.
- China: Stable spot market (USD 699–720/t), Tianjin port unchanged at USD 568–582/t; importers attentive to competitive offers from Kazakhstan and Russia.
📊 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (est., 1,000 t) | Key Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan | >600 | Harvesting late, quality concerns, export leader |
| Russia | 300–350 | Pace similar to Kazakhstan, growing export role |
| Canada | 375 | Largest non-Eurasian exporter, strong organic segment |
| China | 160 | Stable domestic market, opportunistic imports |
| EU (all) | 80–100 | Small, quality-focused production, mainly for oil |
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Kazakhstan/Siberia: Persistent rains and cool weather hamper field drying and machine access; further delays likely if precipitation persists in the next 7–10 days.
- Canada: Near-normal temps with scattered showers; adequate for later-maturing fields but quality risks if rain persists at harvest time.
- France/Eastern EU: Favorable, slightly above average rainfall aiding oil content, but harvest weather key for final quality.
📆 Market Drivers & Positioning
- Harvest delays in Kazakhstan and Siberia restrict new-crop volumes and exportable surpluses.
- European and Chinese buyers remain highly quality-driven; pesticide-free and high oil content command premiums.
- Exchange rates and freight costs relatively stable; volatility muted but risks remain if logistics worsen.
- Speculators maintain low positions amid uncertainty, waiting for signals from the physical market.
- Comparison with last report: Price slide has intensified; fundamental stresses are now more visible, with export prices moving down faster than domestic averages.
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Merchants should limit forward sales until clearer signals from harvest pace and quality emerge.
- Monitor Chinese port prices and European contract activity for signs of turnover resumption.
- Target higher premiums in organic, high-purity segments, where supply remains tight.
- Importers: Consider incrementally covering nearby needs, watch for further price dips as harvest accelerates but be alert to rebound risk if weather disrupts fieldwork further.
- Remain vigilant about changing buyer requirements; lot traceability and documented pesticide-free status can unlock export premiums.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Expected Price Trend | Forecast (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|
| Poland FCA (PL, UA Origin) | Steady to weak | 0.78–0.79 |
| Germany FCA (DE, UA Origin) | Steady to firm | 0.78–0.80 |
| Kazakhstan FOB (KZ, Organic) | Steady | 1.82 |
| Canada FOB (CA, Organic) | Stable | 1.45 |
| China Spot | Firm | 0.70–0.72 |
