The Indian apple market is facing an extraordinary period of volatility and concern as severe flooding in Jammu & Kashmir—the country’s primary apple-growing region—has resulted in unprecedented disruptions along the entire supply chain. With Jammu & Kashmir supplying nearly 75% of India’s apples, the impact is being felt nationwide, triggering both immediate price surges and concerns over medium-term supply stability. The financial toll from early crop losses is already notable; industry sources estimate direct damages at more than USD 22 million, but if adverse weather and logistics issues linger, total losses may skyrocket to between USD 250–450 million in the coming weeks.
Early cultivars such as Gala have been disproportionately affected, and distribution bottlenecks have left tens of thousands of tones stranded, pushing up prices and raising alarm in downstream markets and among end-users. While logistical recovery is progressing and other regions like Himachal Pradesh may soften the blow, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether crop and quality setbacks can be mitigated or if the situation will escalate.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Apple dried
Cubes 10-12 mm
FCA 4.55 €/kg
(from NL)
Apple dried
Cubes 8-10 mm
FCA 4.50 €/kg
(from NL)
Apple dried
Cubes 5-7 mm
FCA 4.60 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple dried | Cubes 5-7 mm | CN | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 4.60 | 0.00 | Firm / Rising |
| Apple dried | Cubes 8-10 mm | CN | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 4.50 | 0.00 | Firm / Rising |
| Apple dried | Cubes 10-12 mm | CN | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 4.55 | 0.00 | Firm / Rising |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Over 1,000 trucks and 10,000 tonnes of apples remain stranded due to highway closures in Jammu & Kashmir, temporarily tightening supplies across India.
- Production Losses: Early crop and acreage damage estimated at 5–10% in low-lying areas. Up to 10% of regional farmers are affected by orchard waterlogging.
- Demand: Growing domestic demand remains robust, putting further pressure on reduced spot availability.
- Offsetting Factors: Partial relief expected from Himachal Pradesh, but its output is not sufficient to fully compensate for Kashmir’s shortfall, especially if disruptions persist.
📊 Fundamentals
- Main Season Risk: Market anxiously watches for further adverse weather as the key harvest window opens post-September 21.
- Logistics as Immediate Challenge: Apple quality and pricing heavily influenced by ongoing recovery of highways and supply routes. Even with effective drainage, prolonged delays threaten total crop yields.
- Price Response: Spot pricing in India has surged; international prices for processed apple products remain firm with upward bias near term.
☁️ Weather Outlook & Impact
- Latest Weather Data: Current forecasts indicate improving weather for Jammu & Kashmir, but the risk of further rainfall and flash floods remains moderate through mid-September. High alert for orchard management persists over the next 10–20 days.
- Impact: Continued waterlogging could cause further yield and quality degradation, especially in early cultivars. Prompt drainage over the next two weeks is crucial to limiting additional losses.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2023/24 Production Estimate (kt) | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| India | 2,400 | Potential 5–10% crop loss due to flooding |
| China | 45,000 | Stable, dominant global supplier |
| EU | 11,400 | Drought and hail damage in some regions |
| USA | 4,500 | Good crop, but rising domestic demand |
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term: Expect continued price firmness in both Indian fresh apple and international dried apple markets as supply disruptions persist.
- Buy-side: Secure contracts and cover requirements for the next 4–6 weeks, with preference for alternative origins to hedge against possible further Indian supply shocks.
- Sell-side: Maintain offering discipline; consider incremental price increases if disruptions persist into late September.
- Monitor: Updates on road reopening and weather in Jammu & Kashmir will be critical to assess further production risks and market direction.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Date | Exchange/Market | Expected Price (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-06 | Dordrecht NL (FCA, CN origin dried apple cubes) | 4.55-4.65 | Slightly Up |
| 2025-09-07 | Dordrecht NL (FCA, CN origin dried apple cubes) | 4.55-4.65 | Stable/Up |
| 2025-09-08 | Dordrecht NL (FCA, CN origin dried apple cubes) | 4.60-4.70 | Up |
