As global agricultural markets face increasing challenges, recent developments highlight the impact of adverse weather conditions on seed crops and the shifting dynamics of sunflower oil exports.
- Adverse Weather Conditions: The challenging weather this year is impacting both food and seed crops. Experts are concerned about potential seed shortages for the upcoming season, prompting early procurement planning.
- Key Insights from Analysts:
- Moisture Deficit: The primary factor limiting seed productivity is the lack of moisture, which could lead to lower-than-expected average yields.
- Seed Surplus Expected: Despite concerns, the National Seed Alliance (NSA) anticipates a surplus of sunflower seeds, with a projected excess of 1.1 thousand tons.
- Hybrids vs. Varieties: Approximately 25-30% of farms plant varieties that are less demanding on technology, which contributes significantly to the seed supply.
- Expansion of Seed Production:
- Major Russian producers are expected to cultivate sunflower seeds on over 30,000 hectares by 2024. However, to meet domestic demand, this area needs to expand to 47-50,000 hectares in the coming years.
- Government Measures:
- The Russian government has extended import quotas for seed material from certain countries until the end of 2025. These quotas, totaling 33.1 thousand tons, will be adjusted based on harvest outcomes and internal market needs.
- Decline in Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Export:
- In August, Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports dropped by 45%, with only 200,000 tons exported in 25 days. This marks the lowest monthly export figure in over two years, largely due to a shortage of raw sunflower seeds.
- EU as Main Export Destination: The European Union remains the top destination, with a record 3.7 million tons shipped.
- Future Projections: No significant increase in sunflower oil exports from Ukraine is expected in September, owing to a continued shortage of both old and new crop sunflowers.