The garlic market across Gujarat is facing strong headwinds as a sustained increase in arrivals, coupled with uncertain rainfall, exerts considerable downward pressure on prices. Over the past week, major marketing yards in Gujarat—including Bhavnagar, Rajkot, Gondal, and Jamnagar—have experienced a marked uptick in farmer deliveries. This is largely attributed to widespread concerns about insufficient rains and an unstable weather forecast, prompting producers to liquidate stocks quickly before the festive season.
While this flurry of sales has ensured ample supply across trading centers, the rapid offload has simultaneously triggered significant price declines. Premium quality garlic, once commanding robust rates, has seen notable corrections, with medium and bulk grades likewise dipping. Across the market, buyers—especially wholesalers—are maintaining conservative procurement strategies, keeping demand moderate even as supply swells. Looking ahead, with little hope for immediate rainfall relief and no evident spike in demand, market sentiment remains bearish. Unless there is an unexpected intervention from exports or government procurement, prices are forecast to stay subdued in the near term.
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📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Market | Product | Grade | Latest Price (USD/quintal) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gondal APMC | Garlic (bulk) | Premium | 38–41 | -4 to -5 (↓) | Bearish |
| Gondal APMC | Garlic (bulk) | Medium | 34–36 | -2 to -3 (↓) | Bearish |
| Jamnagar, Bhavnagar | Garlic (bulk) | Mixed | Similar declines | -2 to -4 (↓) | Bearish |
| Location | Type | Origin | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/MT) | Previous Price (EUR/MT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi | Powder, Organic | India | FOB | 6.63 | 6.63 |
| Cairo | Fresh | Egypt | FOB | 1 | 1 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Gujarat arrivals rose sharply: daily arrivals in Gondal APMC hitting 3,000–3,200 quintals (up from 2,000–2,200).
- Premium quality price drop: USD 42–45 → 38–41 per quintal.
- Medium quality prices slid: USD 37+ → 34–36 per quintal.
- Jamnagar/Bhavnagar: increased arrivals (20–25%), similar price declines.
- Farmers accelerated sales to generate liquidity before festive season.
- Wholesale demand restrained as buyers limit purchases amid expectation of further price softening.
- Weather risk: If insufficient rainfall persists, offloading may continue, further pressuring prices.
📊 Fundamentals & Global Overview
- Global garlic market shows continued robust production from China (the world’s largest producer), with India and Egypt as key secondary sources.
- Exports from India likely to remain underwhelming unless prices stabilize.
- Egyptian fresh garlic holding steady at 1 EUR/MT, maintaining competitiveness for regional buyers.
- Ample existing stocks in importing countries curtail urgent demand for new shipments.
🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- Gujarat: Patchy rainfall and subnormal precipitation reported over the past 10 days; forecast remains dry for the next week, raising concern over bulb sizing and crop quality.
- Central and Western India: Isolated light showers, but overall precipitation remains below seasonal averages.
- Weather agencies warn that further lack of significant rain could impact late crop development and force additional early sales.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2023 Production (‘000 MT) | Stock (Jun 2024, ‘000 MT) | Export Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 23,800 | 11,200 | Stable, leading global supply |
| India | 2,900 | 1,260 | Under pressure, weak exports |
| Egypt | 650 | 410 | Competitive exports to EU/Gulf |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Suppliers: Consider hedging and limiting sales to only core needs until price direction stabilizes post-festive season.
- Exporters: Monitor government procurement and trends in China closely for demand signals. Sell existing stocks judiciously.
- Traders: Expect continued price softness; avoid aggressive buying except for confirmed forward contracts.
- Buyers: Favorable buying window as supply glut persists, but assess quality carefully—especially if adverse weather continues.
- Watch for: Any announcement of government buybacks or export incentives, as these could quickly tighten supply and firm prices.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- Gujarat (APMC Yards): Premium: USD 38–41; Medium: USD 33–36 (possible further modest slide of 1–2 USD expected).
- New Delhi (Powder, Organic): EUR 6.6/MT (flat).
- Cairo (Fresh): EUR 1/MT (flat, high stability expected for next three days).
