The garlic market stands at a pivotal moment as bumper harvests, persistent price pressures, and evolving international trade patterns define the global landscape in 2025. Producers across Europe, Asia, and the Americas face a rapidly shifting environment: on one side, farmers report high yields and solid product quality from Italy, Spain, China, and Egypt; on the other, export markets grapple with surplus supply, strong competition from Chinese imports, and the persistent threat of logistical hurdles or trade tariffs, particularly in North America and parts of Europe. European growers, especially in Italy, France, Spain, and Germany, highlight quality but face headwinds from cheaper Chinese and Egyptian garlic flooding the markets and pressuring domestic sales and prices.
The situation is compounded by regulatory constraints, reduced acreage in Spain, and ongoing uncertainty over US-China trade policy. Meanwhile, emerging exporters like Peru and Chile navigate strong yields but struggle with freight costs and logistical delays, which hamper their rising global market share. China’s expanded acreage and nearly ideal weather have delivered record output and exceptional quality, yet low prices and rising sea freight costs pare down profits, threatening further downward price momentum globally. In North America, high-yield crops from Egypt and China offset mild weather losses in the US and Mexico, but trade remains sensitive to tariffs and economic uncertainties. As the market sorts through these challenges and opportunities, buyers and sellers must stay agile amid unpredictable pricing, shifting sources of supply, and changing consumer preferences.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Garlic
powder
FOB 6.55 €/kg
(from IN)
Garlic
fresh
FOB 0.93 €/kg
(from EG)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Origin | Type | Location | Closing Price (EUR/kg/ton) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | Powder (Organic) | New Delhi | 6.55 €/kg | 0% | Stable / Sideways |
| Egypt | Fresh | Cairo | 0.93 €/kg | 0% | Stable / High Competition |
| China | Fresh (FOB) | Jinxiang (avg. 6.0 size) | 1,215–1,280 €/t | -5% (y/y est.) | Bearish / Abundant supply |
| Austria | Wholesale (Chinese) | Vienna | 4.00–4.20 €/kg | – | Low Price Leader |
| Austria | Wholesale (Italian) | Vienna | 12.80–13.50 €/kg | – | Premium Retail |
| Austria | Wholesale (Local) | Austria | 12.95 €/kg | – | Premium Retail |
| Spain | Fresh | Castilla-La Mancha | 3.21 €/kg | – | Stable, Weak Exports |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- China: 10% expansion in sown area, exceptional quality, 25% rise in white garlic production; strong export pace driven by competitive prices, but sea freight cost increases limit margins.
- Europe (Italy, Spain, France, Germany): Good-to-excellent quality, but acreage down; Spain struggles with slow EU sales due to Chinese oversupply, with domestic price hesitancy.
- Egypt: Large bulbs, high yields, strong demand from Europe/Brazil/Asia; prices stabilise near 1,500 €/ton (FOB) for top quality.
- Mexico: Remains key US supplier, but off-season imports rise, opening doors for Peru/Chile; lower US yields this year, but Mexican garlic holds quality leadership.
- South America: Chile/Peru strong output, Peru gaining on the US market, but facing logistical delays and high freight costs.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Massive global inventories, particularly in Europe, as a result of bumper crops and slow-moving sales.
- USDA export/import statistics confirm a near-record inflow of Chinese and Egyptian garlic into the EU and a mixed US import picture due to tariff pauses on Chinese produce.
- Speculative positioning: Commercial buyers remain cautious (waiting for further declines), while producers face pressured margins.
- Trade policy remains a wildcard—US/China temporary tariff pause has revived Chinese exports, but sentiment remains fragile due to possible policy reversals.
🌦️ Weather & Production Outlook
- China: Dry, warm weather in Shandong/Jiangsu/Henan regions, nearly ideal for curing and harvest; continued favourable conditions expected.
- EU: Mild, dry weather in Italy and Spain improved quality; France/Spain saw occasional rain but with minimal disease issues; next 3 days forecast: sunny, 22–28°C, good for harvesting.
- Egypt & North Africa: Warmer-than-average, dry; supports ongoing export campaign with large bulbs.
- Americas: Mexico/California: Seasonably warm, occasional showers, but overall neutral to supportive for late lifting and storage garlic.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (est. 1,000 t) | YoY Change | Key Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | ~23,000 | +10% | Asia, EU, Americas |
| India | ~1,600 | +4% | Domestic, Middle East |
| Egypt | 900 | +15% | EU, Asia, Americas |
| Spain | 240 | -10% | EU, USA |
| Mexico | 90 | 0% | USA, LATAM |
| Argentina | 90 | +12% | Americas |
| Peru | 72 | +8% | USA, LATAM |
| France | 30 | -5% | EU |
| Germany/Austria | 28 | +7% | EU (domestic) |
📌 Key Market Drivers
- Chinese supply glut and low prices cap global market; risk of further declines if Chinese FOB stays under 930 €/t.
- Ongoing US-EU negotiations and tariff pauses: potential for sudden trade regime shifts impacting short-term flows.
- Weather: near-perfect in major origins, supporting record yields and bulb size, but higher risk of post-harvest loss if storage exceeds capacity.
- Freight/logistics: Doubling shipping costs are impacting South American and Chinese exporters’ netbacks.
- Retail/wholesale arbitrage: Significant spreads between wholesale import and retail local/Italian offers in Austria and other EU countries.
- Slow EU retail demand as consumers chase value amid economic uncertainty.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Importers: Use the current price softness and ample availability in China/Egypt to lock in contracts ahead of potential late-summer shipping hikes.
- EU Wholesalers: Monitor warehouse space and avoid overstocking despite low prices — risk of a glut post-July. Target flexible short-term buys, especially from Spain/Italy, as the fresh crop winds down.
- Exporters (China, Egypt, Peru, Chile): Prepare for aggressive price competition and budget for higher freight.
- Retailers: Leverage premium domestic/Italian supply for margin, but expect slow movement due to supermarket discounting pressure.
- Speculators: Bearish short-term, neutral medium-term; upside only if China throttles exports.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Market | Product | Spot (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (Organic) | Powder (IN) | 6.55 | 6.50–6.60 | Steady |
| Cairo (FOB) | Fresh (EG) | 0.93 | 0.93–0.94 | Steady / Slight up |
| Jinxiang (FOB) | Fresh (CN) | 1,215–1,280 €/t | 1,200–1,275 €/t | Bearish |
| Vienna | Fresh (CN/IT) | 4.00–13.50 | Stable | Steady |
