The garlic market has seen a notable turnaround since July, reversing a earlier trend of subdued prices driven by heavy arrivals. As market arrivals waned, particularly in key growing regions like Saurashtra, traders reported a clear shift in sentiment. Benchmark prices in major mandis rose steadily, bolstered by both tightening supplies and a spell of favorable weather that helped preserve crop quality. In Rajkot, for example, garlic prices increased from $300 to $312 per quintal, while premium lots in Gondal peaked at $330 per quintal. The resurgence in prices, coupled with renewed stockist interest, reflects a classic interplay of seasonal demand and cautious supply discipline.
With festivals approaching, demand is expected to remain robust—adding an extra layer of bullishness to the market. However, market participants remain wary: any unexpected surge in arrivals could cap further gains. Supply-side dynamics, shifting weather conditions in India, and international competition from suppliers like Egypt remain critical variables. The market’s near-term direction hinges on whether current supply moderation persists, especially as festive buying accelerates.
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📈 Prices: Current Garlic Market Snapshot
| Market / Origin | Type | Location | Quality | Price (EUR/kg) | Change | Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajkot (IN) | Fresh | India | Benchmark | Approx. 2.83 | +4% | Aug 29, 2025 | Bullish |
| Gondal (IN) | Fresh | India | Premium | Approx. 3.11 | +6% | Aug 29, 2025 | Strong |
| New Delhi (IN) | Powder (Organic) | India | — | 6.63 | 0% | Aug 29, 2025 | Steady/Firm |
| Cairo (EG) | Fresh | Egypt | Standard | 1.00 | 0% | Aug 29, 2025 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Arrivals in Indian Mandis: Markedly reduced over the past month, dampening overall supply.
- Festive Demand: Expected to increase ahead of key holidays (Diwali, Navratri), supporting prices.
- Stockist Activity: Renewed interest as supply tightens, reflecting an expectation of further price gains.
- International Competition: Stable Egyptian shipments provide a ceiling to global price escalations; Europe remains well-supplied although Indian prices command premiums for quality and proximity.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Movers
- Weather Impact: Favorable conditions in Saurashtra post-monsoon improved bulb quality and reduced spoilage.
- Speculative Positioning: Stockists building positions on the expectation that tightened arrivals and upcoming demand will drive further gains.
- Risks: Any sudden arrival surge (late harvests/hoarded stocks) could pressure prices lower.
☀️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions
- Saurashtra (IN): Persistent dry, sunny conditions aiding post-harvest curing; no adverse weather expected in the coming week.
- Madhya Pradesh (IN): Light showers possible, non-disruptive to stored garlic.
- Egypt: Stable conditions, no weather disruptions expected for harvesting or transit.
Impact: Weather remains broadly supportive for crop quality and prices over the near term.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | Production (2023/24)* | Stocks (th. MT) | Export Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 7.3m MT | High | Dominant Exporter |
| India | 2.0m MT | Reduced | Primarily Domestic |
| Egypt | 0.65m MT | Stable | Key Exporter (Europe, MENA) |
| Spain | 0.28m MT | Lower | EU Market |
*Estimates. India’s stocks seen tightening further if arrivals stay lower into September.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For Importers/Buyers: Consider forward booking for September–October needs; expect further price firmness, particularly for high-grade Indian origin.
- For Exporters: Leverage high domestic prices for premium quality, but remain alert to arrival surges and international competition, especially from Egypt.
- For Stockists: Market fundamentals support holding positions, but monitor arrival patterns and festival demand closely.
- Risk Alert: Remain vigilant for any unexpected volume spikes or negative weather surprises that could cap recent gains.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange / Location | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast (3 Days) |
|---|---|---|
| Rajkot (IN) | 2.83 | +1.5% to +3% (Firm) |
| Gondal (IN) | 3.11 | +1% to +2.5% (Strong) |
| New Delhi (IN) – Powder | 6.63 | Steady to +1% |
| Cairo (EG) | 1.00 | Stable |
Spot market sentiment remains bullish barring surprise arrivals or weather shocks.
