The garlic market is showing renewed optimism as key trading centers in India like Rajkot and Gondal report price gains, driven primarily by the arrival of high-quality produce and the anticipation of heightened festive demand. After a period of subdued movements, the injection of quality arrivals has given prices a notable boost. Rajkot markets, for example, experienced increases of $3.25–$6.50 per quintal just today, with arrivals totaling 500 quintals. Meanwhile, Gondal saw 700 quintals change hands at similarly robust rates. Market sentiment is described as confident, with much of the upward pressure attributed to steady local consumption as well as active buying from outstation traders preparing for the festival season.
Globally, garlic prices remain comparatively stable, with fresh Egyptian garlic quoted at $1.17 per kg (FOB Kairo) and Indian organic garlic powder at $7.74per kg (FOB New Delhi). Traders and analysts anticipate that the firm trend will persist, particularly as supply pressure is reported to have eased and quality arrivals remain robust. With both domestic and international price signals pointing upward, and supportive fundamentals in play, garlic market participants should prepare for continued firmness in the coming weeks.
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📈 Prices: Latest Garlic Market Overview
| Market | Product Type | Quality | Price Range | Currency | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajkot (IN) | Fresh | Average | $39.60 – $40.15 / quintal | USD | +3.25–6.50 | Firm |
| Rajkot (IN) | Fresh | Medium | $40.15 – $40.70 / quintal | USD | +3.25–6.50 | Firm |
| Rajkot (IN) | Fresh | Premium | $40.70 – $42.00 / quintal | USD | +3.25–6.50 | Firm |
| Gondal (IN) | Fresh | All | $39.15 – $40.25 / quintal | USD | +2.00–4.00 (est.) | Firm |
| New Delhi (IN) | Powder (Organic) | – | €6.60 / kg (FOB) | EUR | -0.45% | Steady |
| Kairo (EG) | Fresh | – | €1.00 / kg (FOB) | EUR | 0% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Festive Season Demand: Sharp uptick in domestic demand as festivals approach, bolstered by local and outstation buyers.
- Improved Quality Arrivals: Recent harvests in Gujarat (Rajkot, Gondal) delivered higher-quality produce, allowing sellers to command premiums.
- Easing Supply Pressure: Market arrivals have stabilized after earlier supply tightness, but ample demand continues to support prices.
- Steady Export Interest: Indian garlic remains competitive internationally—especially in powder and processed segments, while Egypt maintains a strong presence in the fresh export market.
- Spec prices in Europe: Garlic powder and fresh prices continue to be underpinned by moderate global inventories.
📊 Fundamentals Snapshot
- Rajkot Arrivals: 500 quintals today; quality mix improved over previous weeks.
- Gondal Arrivals: 700 quintals; similar to last week but with firmer price realization.
- Export Positions: Indian organic garlic powder at €6.60/kg (slightly softer week-on-week), Egyptian fresh garlic stable at €1.00/kg.
- Previous Report Comparison: Earlier reports noted limited fluctuations but lower overall prices, confirming this week’s improvement aligns with arrivals of superior produce and onset of festive-driven offtake.
☀️ Weather Outlook & Production Forecast
- Gujarat: Near-normal monsoon so far; moderate rainfall forecast for coming days which supports ongoing harvest and soil moisture, barring localized flooding episodes.
- Northern India: Clear-to-partly-cloudy conditions anticipated, aiding both harvest completion and logistics.
- Egypt: Favorable for post-harvest storage; dry and stable, no risk to stored stocks.
- Production Implication: No major weather disruptions expected—steady to slightly higher yields seen in key producing districts.
🌐 Global Stock & Production Comparison
| Country | Major Export Product | 2023/24 Production (mt) | Estimated Exportable Stocks (mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Fresh, Powder | ~22,000,000 | ~7,000,000 |
| India | Fresh, Powder | ~2,900,000 | ~300,000 |
| Egypt | Fresh | ~700,000 | ~110,000 |
| Spain | Fresh | ~290,000 | ~80,000 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📌 Short Term: Bullish—demand uptick with quality arrivals and festive season.
- 📌 For Sellers: Hold back lower-quality stocks, prioritize high-quality shipments to leverage price premiums during strong demand phase.
- 📌 For Buyers/Traders: Cover near-term requirements promptly; supply could tighten further as peak demand approaches.
- 📌 Exporters: Monitor currency fluctuations and freight rates; sustained demand from Asia and Middle East supports steady trade flows.
- 📌 Watch for: Rapid changes in weather, unexpected large-volume arrivals, policy changes on agri-exports.
📅 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Markets)
| Location | Product | Current Price | Forecast Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rajkot (IN) | Fresh (avg/premium) | $39.60–$42.00 / quintal | $39.80–$42.30 / quintal |
| Gondal (IN) | Fresh (avg) | $39.15–$40.25 / quintal | $39.30–$40.60 / quintal |
| New Delhi (IN-Fob) | Powder (Organic) | €6.60 / kg | €6.60–€6.65 / kg |
| Kairo (EG-Fob) | Fresh | €1.00 / kg | €1.00–€1.03 / kg |
