Georgia Hazelnuts Edge Higher as Turkish New-Crop Pressure Builds

Georgia-origin hazelnut kernels are trading slightly firmer to mixed, with larger calibres gaining and smaller sizes easing, while Turkish conventional and organic offers remain elevated but broadly steady after the new-crop harvest launch. Georgia’s 2026 hazelnut harvest is progressing under seasonally warm, occasionally showery weather, with no acute stress reported in the main western production zones. At the same time, Türkiye’s Black Sea crop is flowing into the market after August harvest and export windows opened, and the state buyer TMO has recently increased official intervention prices, underpinning farmgate values and limiting downside on FOB kernels. Logistics from Türkiye remain broadly functional despite some port congestion and higher freight costs, tempering but not derailing export flows into the EU confectionery and snack sector.

Prices

Current EUR quotations (latest updates up to 21 September 2026):

• Georgia FCA Warsaw small and medium kernels are slightly softer week-on-week, while 15+ has firmed, widening the premium for larger sizes.
• Turkish conventional kernel prices in Istanbul have moved moderately higher versus early September, reflecting stronger support from state purchase prices and limited farmer selling.
• Turkish organic kernels in İzmir are holding at elevated but stable levels, with only a marginal uptick in blanched roasted product.

Supply & Demand

Türkiye’s export-oriented hazelnut sector remains structurally tight after two consecutive smaller crops. Recent export statistics show shipment volumes in the 2025/26 marketing year falling sharply year-on-year, while export revenues have been largely maintained on significantly higher unit values. This underpins global kernel price levels despite the arrival of the new crop.

For 2026/27, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has raised its official in-shell purchase prices compared with the previous season, signalling continued government support and a floor under farmgate values. With high intervention prices and growers financially less pressured, free-market offers are relatively restrained, especially for higher-yielding lots and premium calibres.

Georgia’s crop plays a smaller but increasingly important complementary role, particularly for EU buyers diversifying origin risk. Market reports highlight ongoing quality challenges in Georgian hazelnuts in recent seasons, which have limited the availability of top-grade kernels even where overall production has been stable. This continues to support the price premium for clean, large-calibre Georgian material into continental Europe.

Weather & Harvest Conditions (Region: Georgia)

Western Georgia’s 2026 growing season has been characterised by relatively warm temperatures and intermittent September rainfall versus the long-term average, without major frost or heat extremes impacting tree nut orchards. Current short-term forecasts for key western lowland and foothill areas relevant to hazelnut production point to seasonally mild conditions over the next few days, with scattered showers but no severe storms or prolonged heavy rain.

This pattern is broadly favourable for late field operations, drying and logistics, although short wet spells may temporarily slow down post-harvest handling in some districts. Importantly, there are no immediate weather signals suggesting a sudden deterioration in crop quality or a disruption to short-term export flows from Georgia.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• State pricing in Türkiye: Higher TMO intervention prices for 2026/27, following already elevated levels in 2025/26, continue to anchor producers’ expectations and limit downside for FOB kernels, even as new-crop arrivals build.
• New-crop pressure vs support: Early-September market commentary indicates that Turkish free-market kernel prices initially eased as the new crop reached processors, but downside has been checked by state buying and still-cautious farmer selling.
• Exports from Türkiye: Despite a structural drop in shipped volumes in the latest marketing year, exporters have maintained or increased revenue thanks to higher prices, confirming robust demand from major EU confectionery and chocolate buyers.
• Logistics: Turkish ports on the Black Sea and Marmara are facing tight capacity and higher freight rates in September, but hazelnut shipments continue with manageable delays, particularly on routes into the EU.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Regional Price View

Trading outlook (next 1–3 weeks)

• Buyers: EU kernel buyers needing Q4–Q1 coverage may consider scaling into Georgia FCA and Turkish FOB positions on small dips, prioritising larger calibres where spreads to smaller sizes remain moderate.
• Sellers (Georgia): With a supportive global backdrop and limited weather risk, staged sales into current demand appear prudent, especially for clean 15+ kernels, while avoiding heavy forward commitments at current differentials.
• Sellers (Türkiye): Given strong TMO price support and still-tight exportable balances, holding a portion of high-quality inventory for potential winter rallies looks reasonable, while monetising standard grades to manage storage and liquidity.

3‑day directional price indications (focus: Georgia-origin, region GE)

• Georgia → Warsaw, FCA: With stable weather, ongoing harvest progress and firm underlying global fundamentals, EUR prices for Georgian natural kernels (all calibres) are expected to remain broadly steady with a slight upward bias over the next three days.
• Competing Turkish FOB kernels: Supported by high state purchase prices and steady export demand, conventional Turkish FOB kernel prices are likely to trade sideways to marginally firmer in the very short term.
• Organic segment (Türkiye): Organic kernel and processed-product prices in İzmir are projected to remain stable, with limited spot liquidity and no immediate weather or policy drivers for short-term moves.