Hazelnuts: Oregon Price Rebound Meets Rising Black Sea Supply

Hazelnut growers in Oregon are entering the new marketing year from a much stronger income position after a roughly 67% price rebound to about US$2,800 per tonne last season, but global supply growth from the Black Sea raises questions about how long this higher-price environment can last. European and Turkish kernel prices show a firm to slightly higher tone, suggesting that nearby fundamentals remain supportive even as forward risks build. After several weaker years, the sharp price recovery has materially improved revenue and tax planning conditions for Oregon producers, with higher taxable incomes now a central management issue. At the same time, Turkey’s state buyer has lifted farm-gate purchase prices again for 2026/27, and Georgia continues to prioritize hazelnuts among its key agri-food exports, pointing to a broadly constructive global demand backdrop but also to expanding supply capacity. The main strategic question for growers and buyers alike is whether the current high-price regime will persist through the upcoming marketing season or begin to normalize as new-crop volumes arrive.

Prices

Oregon grower prices rebounded around 67% last season to roughly US$2,800 per tonne, reversing several years of depressed returns and significantly lifting farm incomes in the U.S. Pacific Northwest.  This recovery underpins a notably stronger starting point for the 2026/27 marketing season, even though the durability of these levels remains uncertain as global supply responds.

In the physical kernel market, recent quotations indicate a mixed but generally firm tone. In Warsaw, Georgia-origin hazelnut kernels natural 11–13 mm (FCA) are currently at 8.35 EUR, while 13–15 mm are at 9.90 EUR and 15+ at 10.05 EUR FCA. In Turkey, conventional natural kernels 11–13 mm (FOB Istanbul) are at 7.311 EUR and 13–15 mm at 7.846 EUR, with roasted meal around 6.00 EUR and roasted diced 2–4 mm at 6.70 EUR FOB. Organic kernels FOB İzmir remain substantially higher, with 11–13 mm at 19.38 EUR, 13–15 mm at 18.35 EUR and blanched roasted product at 22.90 EUR.

Day-on-day and week-on-week moves point to modest firmness in several lines: Turkey natural kernels 11–13 mm have risen from 6.91 to 7.311 EUR FOB since early September, and 13–15 mm from 7.448 to 7.846 EUR FOB. Georgia-origin kernels in Poland show a similar pattern, with 11–13 mm easing slightly to 8.35 EUR FCA while 15+ size has edged up to 10.05 EUR FCA. This pattern hints at selective tightness in larger sizes and processed forms, while standard grades remain adequately supplied.

Supply & Demand

Fundamentally, the global balance is shifting toward more comfortable supply, especially out of Turkey, even as Oregon enjoys stronger pricing. The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has announced significantly higher purchase prices for the 2026/27 season, at 255 TL/kg for Giresun quality and 250 TL/kg for Levant quality based on a 50% kernel yield, roughly 28% above last season in local-currency terms.  Despite currency effects limiting the increase in dollar terms, the signal to growers is clearly supportive and is expected to sustain high production incentives.

Earlier this year, industry forecasts pointed to a substantial Turkish crop expansion for 2026/27, with production projected around 809,940 tonnes, up about 56% year on year and implying a sizeable surplus once carry-in stocks are included.  This prospective supply growth contrasts with the tighter conditions that helped Oregon prices rally to US$2,800 per tonne last season, and it raises the risk that global kernel values could soften if demand does not keep pace.

On the demand side, hazelnuts remain a core ingredient for chocolate, spreads and premium confectionery, with buyers in Europe and North America showing willingness to pay for secure, high-quality origin. Georgia’s trade data highlight hazelnuts as one of the country’s key agri-food exports, alongside wine and other specialty products, within a broader 13% year-on-year increase in agri-food export values through August 2026.  This underscores the continued role of hazelnuts in value-added export strategies across the Black Sea region and suggests that medium-term demand remains robust even as price-sensitive segments look for cost optimization.

Fundamentals & Weather

For Oregon, the immediate implication of last season’s price jump is financial rather than purely logistical: many growers now face materially higher taxable income after several lean years, with farm-income averaging becoming a relevant planning tool to smooth the impact of the rebound. This improved cash flow may encourage reinvestment in orchards and risk management, but it also creates exposure if prices revert lower while cost structures remain elevated. From a market perspective, the key takeaway is that Oregon producers enter the new season in stronger shape, potentially more resilient to moderate price corrections.

In Turkey’s Black Sea region, short-term weather does not currently present major threats to the newly harvested crop. Official weekly forecasts for 21–27 September indicate a pattern of partly to mostly cloudy conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the country, including the Black Sea coast, but without extreme temperature anomalies.  With main harvest operations largely completed and cool, seasonally normal temperatures prevailing, the near-term weather impact on the 2026 crop quality and yield appears limited.

Structurally, however, the combination of rising Turkish and Georgian production, plus ongoing orchard expansion in Oregon and other emerging origins, continues to tilt the long-run balance toward ample global supply. This makes the recent Oregon price rebound look cyclical rather than a permanent reset, especially if macroeconomic conditions weigh on discretionary confectionery demand in key consuming regions.

Outlook & Trading Strategy

Looking ahead into the new marketing season, the core question is whether the elevated Oregon price level around US$2,800 per tonne can be sustained in the face of expanding Black Sea supply and higher official purchase prices in Turkey. While current kernel quotations in Europe and Turkey show no sign of a sharp downturn yet, the large prospective Turkish crop and generous TMO price floor argue for cautious expectations on further upside. For Oregon growers, managing the current income windfall prudently, while preparing for potential normalization, will be critical.

• Growers in Oregon: Use the stronger price base and improved cash flow to reinforce balance sheets and consider hedging a portion of expected 2026/27 output at current favorable levels where forward opportunities exist. Integrate price risk into tax and investment planning, given that farm-income averaging can smooth but not eliminate volatility in taxable income.
• European and U.S. buyers: With TMO purchase prices raised and a large Turkish crop expected, near-term downside may be limited, but medium-term pressure is likely once export flows accelerate. Consider securing key volumes of larger sizes and organic product now, where quotations such as 15+ mm Georgia-origin at 10.05 EUR FCA Warsaw and organic 11–13 mm at 19.38 EUR FOB İzmir suggest a still firm market, while preserving flexibility for standard grades that could soften later.
• Black Sea exporters (Turkey, Georgia): The combination of elevated local support prices and a projected surplus argues for aggressive market development and forward selling strategies, especially into Europe and emerging markets, to avoid inventory overhangs. Monitoring confectionery demand and currency dynamics will be vital in price negotiations with industrial buyers.

3-Day Price Indication

Over the next three trading days, spot kernel prices are expected to remain broadly stable to slightly firm, with only minor adjustments as markets digest the higher Turkish support prices and strong Oregon grower returns. In Europe, Georgia-origin kernels in Warsaw (11–13 mm, 13–15 mm, 15+ mm FCA) are likely to trade sideways around current levels, with some upward bias in the larger 15+ size. Turkish FOB Istanbul quotations for natural kernels and roasted products should stay supported by the new TMO floor, whereas organic FOB İzmir lines are seen holding their current premium without major direction until clearer export demand signals emerge.