Turkish Hazelnuts Edge Higher as New-Crop Supply Meets Firm Export Demand

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are grinding higher on new-crop arrivals, supported by firm export values and a weaker lira that keeps EUR-based FOB offers competitive. Conventional kernels in Istanbul have risen about 5% since early September, while organic material in İzmir holds a large premium but is relatively stable. New-crop harvesting is now largely underway across the Black Sea belt and the state grain board TMO has opened 2026/27 intake, putting a floor under farmgate prices. Export statistics up to the end of August show a sharp year-on-year drop in export volumes but relatively resilient export revenue, implying higher average export prices per tonne. Combined with a softer TRY against the EUR in September, this is feeding through into slightly firmer EUR-denominated FOB offers. Short term, the market looks underpinned, with upside risk if European confectionery demand accelerates into Q4.

Prices

Using an indicative rate of 1 EUR ≈ 56.2 TRY based on mid-September quotations, Istanbul FOB hazelnut kernel prices translate as follows :

Organic FOB İzmir indications are broadly steady at significantly higher levels, around €18.35–22.85/kg depending on size and processing. Georgian-origin kernels ex-Warsaw are quoted higher than Turkish material, leaving Turkey clearly price-competitive in Europe.

Supply, Harvest & Weather (TR)

Official harvest events and ministerial statements confirm that 2026 hazelnut harvesting is in full swing across key Black Sea provinces, with regional authorities reporting crop estimates and pest-control measures, notably against brown marmorated stink bug. Recent communications from the Ministry of Trade also list late-August harvest windows for higher-altitude Giresun areas, indicating that even late zones have now entered or passed peak picking.

Weather over the last weeks in the Eastern and Central Black Sea has been seasonally mild with intermittent rainfall, broadly favourable for harvest but occasionally slowing field work in higher, more humid districts. This pattern has not triggered widespread damage reports and is considered neutral-to-supportive for quality in the short run. With TMO’s 2026/27 purchase program started at end-August, producer selling has a state-backed alternative, limiting downside pressure at the farm level.

Fundamentals & Trade

Export data compiled by the Black Sea exporters’ association show that Turkey shipped around 197,000 tonnes of hazelnut products between 1 September 2025 and 31 August 2026, down roughly 36% in volume year-on-year, while export revenues stayed above USD 2.5 billion. This implies markedly higher average export unit values, consistent with the firming in kernel offers now visible in Istanbul.

Domestic TRY-denominated hazelnut prices have also risen on a year-on-year basis, with one international market snapshot indicating a local price near 187 TRY/kg in early September, about 15% higher than a year earlier. The simultaneous weakening of the lira versus the euro in late August–mid September moderates part of this move for euro-based buyers, keeping current FOB Turkey hazelnuts attractive versus alternative origins.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Views

• Bias: Mildly bullish in EUR terms as export pipelines refill and TMO purchases underpin farmgate prices.
• For buyers (EU roasters/confectioners): Consider covering Q4–Q1 needs incrementally at current levels; Turkish FOB remains competitive versus Georgian supply, but tighter exportable surplus vs. last year argues against waiting for significant discounts.
• For Turkish sellers/processors: Use recent EUR strength and solid export values to lock in forward sales on price rallies; maintain flexibility on size/quality differentials as organic and value-added products continue to command strong premiums.
• Risk factors: Currency volatility, any late-season quality issues in high-altitude orchards, and potential demand softness in Europe if confectionery sales disappoint this winter.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (TR, FOB)

• Istanbul kernels (11–13mm, 13–15mm): Sideways to slightly firmer in EUR, with support from TMO activity and export inquiries.
• Processed forms (meal, diced): Mostly stable; small upside possible if raw kernel offers continue to tick higher.
• Organic kernels (İzmir): Stable with a firm tone; premiums vs. conventional likely to hold near current wide levels.